04 AUGUST 2022
Ministry of Health Covid-19 and vaccination rollout briefing. Video / NZ Herald
Covid-19 has been directly responsible for one in seven recent deaths – and has already claimed five times as many lives as those lost in car accidents last year.
But even after New Zealand recently saw its deadliest week of the pandemic, a top epidemiologist fears Kiwis are growing indifferent.
A Herald analysis showed that, in the week ending July 17 – around the time this second Omicron wave was peaking – 836 people died across New Zealand.
Of those deaths, 120 - nearly 15 per cent - were directly attributed to Covid-19.
Nearly one in five died within 28 days of being reported as a Covid-19 case.
"For the first time, Covid-19 has probably become the leading cause of death in New Zealand," Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said.
"Fifteen per cent of people dying from Covid-19 is about the same proportion of people who die from ischaemic heart disease, which is currently our single biggest killer.
"It's also twice the number dying from stroke, which has long been number two."
Baker says it is paradoxical that, at a point we're seeing the highest mortality impact of this pandemic so far, public attention appears to have dropped to low levels.
Consumer NZ's Sentiment Tracker showed Covid-19 was an issue that just a quarter of respondents now found to be most concerning – well behind housing and the cost of living.
"Of course, we all want to move on from it - but while we might be finished with the pandemic, the pandemic hasn't finished with us."
According to newly-updated Ministry of Health data, most of the virus-related deaths it's reported have been confirmed to be wholly or partially attributed to Covid-19.
As of Friday, some 1638 of a total 2423 reported deaths had been formally attributed to Covid-19.
In two thirds of those cases, the virus was listed as the underlying cause.
"And it's important to remember that some people dying because of Covid-19 will not be counted because they did not have a typical illness and were not tested before they died," Baker said.
And as health experts have constantly warned throughout the pandemic, that burden hasn't been falling equally across society.
So far, Māori and Pacific people have accounted for more than a third of hospitalisations with Covid-19 – and nearly two in 10 deaths where the virus was the underlying cause.
Another clear risk factor in hospitalisation and deaths remained age.
All but 46 of those who'd died from the virus were older than 60 - and two-thirds of deaths were recorded among people older than 80.
Baker has already aired concerns that average life expectancy – a measure that New Zealand was only one of three countries to improve over the first two years of the pandemic – could fall significantly because of Covid-19.
At the same time, our excess mortality has increased this year and is now running at 10 per cent above normal and likely to continue while we report daily Covid-19 deaths in the double digits.
"This is what we've been seeing throughout autumn and winter – but we know this virus is able to spread in summer very easily," Baker said.
In response to the country's climbing death rates, officials have pointed out New Zealand's cumulative Covid-19 death rate over the pandemic – 316 per million of population as at August 4 – relatively low.
That still compared well with other countries, including the UK and US, with 2753 and 3062 deaths per million of population respectively.
However, that low cumulative mortality came from the first two years of the pandemic when its elimination strategy largely kept the virus out while we vaccinated the nation, Baker said.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank said that, while death rates would come down as this Omicron wave subsided, it was likely the country would record 2000 deaths by year's end.
That would be more than six times' the number of Kiwis killed on our roads last year – and also greater than the annual toll of lung cancer.
Going forward, Plank expected Covid-19 to remain a "significant contributor to overall mortality.
"We are in a difficult situation in the sense that this is a really difficult virus to control: it's now widespread throughout the community, it's very transmissible and it's not going to go away.
"While public measures like masks will help reduce that burden, it's not going to eliminate it altogether."
"For the first time, Covid-19 has probably become the leading cause of death in New Zealand," Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker says. Photo / Supplied
For those most vulnerable Kiwis, being boosted remained crucial, Plank said.
"It's much, much better to get your immunity from a vaccine than from getting infected."
Baker said he was concerned about "an element of fatalism" about the virus.
"I refute the view that everyone will get it and that we should just accept the inevitable," Baker said.
"The evidence is strong that you can and should avoid getting infected and reinfected with this virus, as each infection carries a risk of serious illness and Long Covid.
"We also know that infection can be controlled. New Zealand hospitals for example have largely eliminated transmission within their workplaces by following simple infection control principles of universal masking and improved ventilation.
"The same approach can be applied in workplaces, schools, and other settings.
"We will never stop every infection, but we can prevent most of them, and turn down the number of cases, hospitalisations, deaths and people getting Long Covid."
3302 new cases today
There are 3302 new community cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand today, with 606 people in hospital with the virus, including 16 in intensive care. Eighteen deaths were reported today.
The seven-day rolling average continues its climb down from this Omicron wave's peak.
That average today stood at 5441 – compared with 7183 the week before, the Ministry of Health reported.
While most people had been able to recover from Covid-19 at home, hospital numbers continued to run high, with 606 people receiving care with the virus, and 16 in ICU.
But hospitalisation rates were still slowly falling after the latest Omicron wave peaked, with the seven-day rolling average down from 810 a week ago to 675 today.
The average age of those in hospital with Covid-19 is 64.
Of the 606 people in hospital with the virus today, 75 are in Auckland, 100 in Canterbury, 57 in Waitematā and 46 in Counties Manukau.
The remainder are in Northland: 29; Waikato: 67; Bay of Plenty: 28; Lakes: 10; Hawke's Bay: 24; MidCentral: 27; Whanganui: 6; Taranaki: 22; Tairāwhiti: 3; Wairarapa: 3; Capital & Coast: 16; Hutt Valley: 15; Nelson Marlborough: 18; West Coast: 6; South Canterbury: 23 and Southern: 31.
Almost 1.6 million people have recovered from the virus, almost all after contracting the super-contagious Omicron variants during two major waves this year, with the winter wave now easing.
The latest ESR surveillance showed the more transmissible BA.5 subvariant made up about three quarters of sequenced samples.
Of the 18 people whose deaths were reported today, eight were from Auckland, one from Lakes, one from Tairawhiti, one from Hawke's Bay, one from Taranaki, four were from Wellington, one from Canterbury and one from South Canterbury.
One was in their 50s, two were in their 60s, two were in their 70s, nine were in their 80s and four were aged over 90. Of these people, 11 were women and seven were men.
As of today, 1638 deaths in New Zealand have been confirmed with Covid-19 being either the underlying cause or a contributing factor.
The seven-day rolling average increase in total deaths attributable to Covid-19 is 14. New deaths aren't reported at the weekend.
