Kaitaia's Awanui River is expected to drop to its lowest level ever recorded today as the drought drags on into its fifth month.
With no rain expected until late next month, the river - Kaitaia's main source of town supply water - is likely to drop further still.
Yesterday, the depleted river was flowing at 327 litres per second and dropping by about 8 litres per second each day.
That means it is today likely to match or fall below the lowest flow ever recorded, which was 320 litres per second in 1958.
The Far North District Council is allowed to take water for Kaitaia's town supply only under an emergency permit issued week by week by the Northland Regional Council.
Council spokeswoman Alison Lees said residents were now responding well to calls to cut water use by 20 per cent.
Most towns facing a water shortage - Kaitaia, Kawakawa/Moerewa, Rawene and, most recently, Kaikohe - had met or exceeded their savings targets. The exception was Opononi/Omapere, where demand was still outstripping supply.
The number of people being "dobbed in" for ignoring the rules by using sprinklers, filling up pools, waterblasting houses or washing cars with anything but a bucket had dropped to about one a day.
"I think this is because the message is well and truly out there now and most people now understand the severity of the situation," Ms Lees said.
The Advocate understands one of the repeat offenders was the Kaitaia Bowling Club, which continued watering its greens for a week and a half for a tournament. The club is now thought to have organised an alternative water supply.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research agricultural climatologist Alan Porteous said forecasts showed the rainfall needed to break the drought was unlikely to arrive soon.
Kaitaia farmers he had spoken to called it a once-in-50-year event.
"It's the worst conditions that many of them would've expected in their working lives," he said.
Federated Farmers was not expecting pastures to benefit from rain until the end of April.
Adverse events spokesman David Rose said farmers cutting back on stock early had led to a 30 per cent drop in Northland milk production from last year's levels. Production was estimated to be $18 million less than last year.
Fonterra's general manager of milk supply Tim Deane said last season was "awful", so this season was about $30 million down on normal.
Northland farmers were digging into their winter feed and buying supplementary supplies, adding to their financial pain.
Unlike Hawke's Bay, which had endured three dry seasons, Northland farmers were not used to drought and were not as prepared.
From November to January the Far North received less than a third of its normal rainfall. In some areas that figure was just 10 per cent. After a dry March, the soil moisture deficit was 130mm.
Rodney District was also verging on drought, he said.
Over the past week, Kaitaia used on average 2569cu m of water a day, only just above the 2500cu m target. Kawakawa/Moerewa was averaging 1069cu m (target 1120cu m), Opononi/Omapere 207cu m (150cu m), Rawene 117cu m (135cu m), and Kaikohe, where the conservation call went out last week, 1700cu m (1366cu m).
Awanui River down to record-low trickle
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