Covid 19 coronavirus: Liam Dann - Extended lockdown not what business wanted to hear - this will cost jobs

People out and about in Auckland City wearing masks as the region functions under Covid-19 Alert Level 3. August 2020 New Zealand Herald photograph by Dean Purcell.

COMMENT:

This was not the announcement that Auckland business owners wanted to hear.

An extra four days in lockdown may be too much for some firms already on the brink.

It will cost more jobs. It will bring more hardship.

It runs the risk of despair creeping into some quarters of the business community.

Sadly though, extending the lockdown was the only logical choice.

Having come this far to control this latest outbreak it would have made no sense to cut our losses early.

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff - who can see clearly the damage lockdown is doing to his beloved CBD - put it well: "It is difficult for businesses and Aucklanders struggling under Level 3, but the evidence is clear: if we ease up on restrictions too early we risk a further resurgence of the virus and no one wants that," Goff posted on Twitter.

Coming out of lockdown early just to yo-yo back in days or weeks later would impose a far greater economic cost than this latest extension.

Losing control of the virus altogether would effectively condemn the country to the unending restrictions currently facing most of the world.

That's to say it would mean a higher economic toll, before you even get to the health impacts and suffering the virus brings.

Cost estimates for the current lockdown levels have ranged from $300 million to $440m a week.

That is still manageable for the country at a macro-economic level.

That is still manageable for the Government in terms of additional fiscal support.

But that is a bird's-eye view.

Presenting the lockdown as manageable is infuriating for many business owners confronted with an impossibly difficult situation.

It's not something economists say lightly.

There is anger and frustration in the business community.

A survey by the Auckland Chamber of Commerce found that one in five businesses fear they cannot survive another lockdown.

If the current strategy works, then the final toll won't be that high.

It is more likely a reflection of the pessimism and despair setting with many business owners.

That is worrying.

There has, in some quarters, been questioning of New Zealand's elimination strategy.

But short of adopting the Swedish model with its chilling death toll - for which there is almost no public appetite - there is no obvious alternative.

Those making decisions about that nation's long-term future have to keep focused on the big picture - however hard it might be.

The economists and the health specialists are not at odds right now. They are in agreement.

While New Zealand has a chance to stay Covid-19 free, it has to take it.

Whether the strategy is sustainable for months or years is prompting much discussion. But it is irrelevant right now.

A vaccine may come. Or it may not.

But incremental progress is being made in the treatment and management of this virus every day.

The mortality rate is lower now than it was in February. It will be lower still in a year.

The longer we can keep it at bay, the less damage it will do if and when it finally takes hold here.

While we keep it at bay we retain choices and opportunities that other countries no longer have.

It's the right call to fight for those.