Wyn Drabble says all meteorologists can do is predict what is most likely to occur based on the present situation, which can change at the drop of a hat. Photo / NZME
Wyn Drabble says all meteorologists can do is predict what is most likely to occur based on the present situation, which can change at the drop of a hat. Photo / NZME
OPINION
Mrs D: Is that rain I hear?
Me (averting gaze from window to PC screen): Hang on, I’ll just check on MetService.
Recently, I’ve read or heard a couple of weather report comments that tickled my fancy. (Yes, of course I have a fancy.)
The most recent was thisone: “Cloudy periods with rain at times, possibly heavy and thundery with small hail this afternoon and evening.” I don’t believe I’ve ever heard the size of hail specified in a forecast before. It begs the question, is hail also available in medium and large? Or even jumbo?
A few weeks earlier when I checked the local forecast for the day, I read, “Some showers, mostly in the morning or afternoon.” Of course, I wondered what other times of day there were. To me, the terms “morning” and “afternoon” pretty much cover a day.
Many of us like to scoff at weather forecasters but theirs is not an easy job, especially in a country like ours.
Top weather presenter Jim Hickey summed it up in 2012. “We live in two small islands, uplifted high, right on the fringe of the roaring 40s, westerly wind belt and a wind tunnel in the middle called Cook Strait. And big mountains which create huge differential weather patterns between east and west. There’s always something happening.”
All meteorologists can do is predict what is most likely to occur based on the current situation, which can, of course, change at the drop of a hat.
In the days before radio and TV meteorologists, people had to rely on observation and experience using rules of thumb, which today are mostly dismissed as old wives’ tales.
The chirping of crickets can indicate the temperature, for example. If you can be bothered, count the number of chirps in 15 seconds then add 37 (though some old wives say 40) and you should have a Fahrenheit temperature within a few degrees of reality. For Celsius readings you will need to locate more-advanced crickets.
Another common example of weather lore is that cows lie down when rain is coming. While there is no scientific evidence for this, I don’t want to be the one who ruins the chances of cows to have a lie-down.
There are also those who claim they can smell the rain. We mustn’t scoff at this sniff test idea because apparently, there is some scientific truth to it but I think it’s too complicated for me to go into in this space.
Since early childhood I have heard, “Red sky at night, shepherd’s (or sailor’s) delight; red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning.” Using it has given me some pretty accurate predictions. Also some pretty accurate failures.
In my younger days I tended to use the Dominion Weather Forecast (via steam wireless) as backup.
But a favourite method of mine is one I found online. I don’t know who John is, but I found a photograph of his delightful weather forecasting stone.
From a wall bracket hangs a stone about the size of an average potato. Behind it in a poster on the wall hangs the key to John’s Weather Forecasting Stone:
Stone condition and forecast
Stone is wet: It is raining
Stone is dry: It is not raining
Shadow on ground below stone: Sunny
Stone is white on top: Snowing
Stone not visible: Foggy
Swinging stone: Windy
Stone jumping up and down: Earthquake
Stone gone: Tornado
Anyway, given our geography, I believe our meteorologists do a commendable job of weather prediction and it’s certainly better than the horoscope-type stuff they could offer:
“Tomorrow there will be a lot of weather but possibly still not enough to go round.”
– Wyn Drabble is a teacher of English, a writer, musician and public speaker
