This is almost never the case, according to the pollsters I talk to regularly. Tukituki is unlikely to have a massive swing against National while National remain so far ahead of Labour in the polls.
If the polls stay consistent, Labour's Anna Lorck needs to overturn a 6490 majority from 2014. To do so would be unprecedented, as it is near impossible for a candidate to overturn a majority of 6500 in a single election.
For a Labour candidate to win they need to win Hastings extremely well, and limit their losses in Havelock North.
The Central Hawke's Bay voters are all nearly all rural, as Waipawa and Waipukurau are not in the Tukituki electorate. These voters and the nearly 5000 rural voters in the rest of the electorate are unlikely to vote for Labour no matter who the candidate is.
Anyone saying that Tukituki will be won or lost in Flaxmere deserves to be treated with contempt. There are fewer than 1500 votes in Flaxmere. Even winning every vote in Flaxmere would not be enough to win Tukituki.
Other national factors, like the strong state of the economy and high consumer confidence make it unlikely that Labour will improve their poll ratings. Happy voters tend not to vote out an incumbent government.
Further, Labour as a party is financially crippled, so even with a dynamic and charismatic leader they would struggle to compete. With the dour Andrew Little as leader it would seem highly unlikely they can compete while broke.
The macro factors favour a generic National candidate over a generic Labour candidate in Tukituki. A really competent, hard working candidate with a good strategy can overcome this if they get very lucky and are likeable.
Stuart Nash, who is probably the most likeable leftwinger in politics, and a strong campaigner, got very lucky in being able to campaign on amalgamation. Without amalgamation it would have been very difficult for him to win.
If Lawrence Yule is selected to run against Anna Lorck there will be two contrasting candidates. They have markedly different personalities and reputations, with few people actively disliking the affable and reasonable Yule. In contrast Lorck is a polarising figure. She has polarised a few too many people who she needs to vote for her to overcome a 6500 majority.
Lorck's initial comments about Yule running, where she attacked him hard, are unlikely to succeed. Such attacks do succeed against an unknown or unpopular figure, Yule is neither, having over 20 years in public life and without creating many enemies.
Attacking Yule will likely hurt Lorck, as the voters who know Yule know he has done a good job as Mayor of Hastings, and is a pleasant person to have a conversation with. That view cannot be overturned through personal attacks.
There is a case that Yule may be vulnerable on the gastro outbreak. If it is found that the HDC was negligent, or even worse, knew about potential problems but covered them up, Yule will be in trouble.
Otherwise Yule, who immediately apologised for the outbreak, kept fronting the media and the public, will not be blamed. Voters can accept unfortunate accidents provided politicians front up and do not attempt to pass the buck.
Voters almost never base their voting decision based something as irrelevant as a promise to serve a full term. Yule's explanation is good enough for reasonable people, who also change their minds when facts change.
Whether Yule changed his mind and broke a pledge will matter far less than the party he is running for, his overall record in governance and his affable nature. It will also matter less than the state of the economy and the lack of competence of the Labour Party.
There will likely be poll numbers released through the campaign showing results going one way or another. These should be treated with extreme scepticism unless they are undertaken by a reputable polling company and the full polling methodology is released.
Online self selecting polls should be treated with even more caution. Polls conducted by a candidates' friends should be laughed at, as they always skew results so badly they cannot be taken seriously.
It is not impossible for Lorck to beat Yule. It is, however, highly unlikely. National is strong, the country is going in the right direction according to the polls, Tukituki has a large National majority and Yule has a good reputation based on his tenure as mayor of Hastings.
These factors are outside the control of Lorck, and on raw numbers alone a generic Labour candidate would lose to a generic National candidate in Tukituki.
- Simon Lusk is a Hawke's Bay-based campaign manager. He is not involved in the Tukituki Campaign.
