The by election will almost certainly have a very low turnout. There are few precedents for mayoral by elections, which makes predicting total turnout difficult.
Those with long experience in Local Government think that turnout will be about half that of the 2016 election, meaning about 12,500 votes in total.
The very limited number of voters and the potential for a multi candidate field mean that the winning candidate may not have to win a high plurality of the vote.
A relatively even field of five splitting the projected 12500 votes may only require 3000 votes to win, while 4500 would seem almost certain to win. Increase the number of candidates and the winning vote getter may need fewer votes.
The campaign itself will almost certain to be won by the candidate who is willing to work the hardest. They will have to be everywhere, meeting groups, talking to people and being available.
This is one of the great attributes of Lawrence Yule as Mayor. He was always available, frequently at all manner of events and always front footed tough issues like the Ocean Beach development plans and the Havelock North water crisis.
Mayoral candidates will have to convince voters that they have a sensible vision for the Hastings District, which will necessarily include not increasing rates too much to pay for pet projects.
Water will feature high on voting intentions, with candidates asked for their plans for safe secure water supply. Sensible answers on water based on fact will help a candidate demonstrate their credibility as a potential mayor.
There are few really contentious issues in Hastings at the moment, and even fewer that are the direct responsibility of the council.
The most urgent and most important issue is housing affordability, with land supply restrictions pushing up land prices and house prices. An increasing Hawkes Bay population means that demand for housing will increase, and supply of land has been lagging.
This will lead to some conflict between those who want to protect the premium growing land on the Heretaunga plains, and those who want to expand Hastings outwards on this growing land.
If previous elections are a guide the growers wanting to protect land will be far more active than developers in this campaign, and any successful candidate will have to be onside with growers, not property developers. This means the inevitable development of the Havelock Hills and other lower quality soil type land, rather than on high quality producing land on the Heretaunga Plains.
The most likely winner of the mayoral by election will be someone who runs a good campaign, works hard and has a reputation for being able to work with just about everyone.
They will be able to articulate their vision for the Hastings District, and will instinctively understand the political issues facing our district.
They will be able to turn out the vote and they will be able to convince strangers they are worthy of their vote.
Simon Lusk is a Hawke's Bay-based political strategist and campaign manager.
The views expressed here are the writer's personal opinion, and not the newspaper's. Email: editor@hbtoday.co.nz.
