Garth McVicar's late entry into the race cost him.
Even someone of McVicar's profile could not compete with Nash. McVicar was let down by the dreadfully incompetent Conservative Party.
McVicar's 7135 votes almost certainly did not alter the result of the election as Walford would have had to win about 5500 of these votes to be able to beat Nash.
TUKITUKI
Craig Foss retained the seat with some ease.
His opponent Anna Lorck ran an aggressive campaign but proved the rule that PR people are not good as candidates or at campaign strategy.
Lorck's graceless campaign style did little to endear her to the voters of Tukituki or the Labour Party.
Sources inside Labour say they will seek another candidate in 2017 as Lorck alienated important Labour factions both locally and nationally.
If Foss retires an open seat will be a toss up.
If Foss does not retire he could be under pressure if National and Labour are closer in the polls and Labour selects a likable candidate who has a good platform from running a strong local government campaign in 2016.
There is an understanding in Labour circles that Lorck will be told to prove her electability by winning a council race, as she has now lost two campaigns in a row.
WAIRARAPA
Ron Mark entering the race meant there was a small chance of Labour's Kieran McAnulty beating National's Alastair Scott if Mark split the vote. This did not occur, but when the tide turns against National Scott will struggle to hold the seat.
Scott is not cut out for retail politics, and McAnulty is a good campaigner though he will be disappointed with the majority of 6228.
If McAnulty runs a three-year campaign like Nash has run in Napier it will see a very, very close contest in 2017. McAnulty needs to run a good local government campaign in 2016 to build his profile.
Ron Mark is a good politician but even good politicians running for minor parties struggle. If he had started earlier in the year he may have done better.
IKAROA-RAWHITI
Meka Whaitiri held a safe Labour seat with some ease. Maori seats are tough to campaign in because they are so large, which made it hard for Whaitiri's opponents to compete against her. Even so, Whaitiri has amassed a very, very large majority for a Maori seat where turnout is under 60 per cent of a general seat.
Whaitiri is an extremely competent politician who has spent her first year in Parliament finding her feet. She can be expected to be a strong performer in the future if she has more self belief and confidence.
• What this means for local issues
Nash is a huge threat to amalgamation. He has proven he is a very, very good politician and a good strategist. His opponents have run a truly terrible campaign so far, especially when the Napier City Council is doing its best to prove it is incompetent with the Art Deco Buses and MTG fiascos. Unless A Better Hawke's Bay get their act together very rapidly, Nash will stop amalgamation. The Ruataniwha Water Storage Scheme is the other big loser on the night.
Both Nash and Whaitiri are strongly opposed to the RWSS, and will have plenty of time to campaign against it.
The big problem for the Regional Council is Andrew Newman has an appalling relationship with both Whaitiri and Nash, and unless he is replaced their staunch opposition will continue.
• Simon Lusk is a political strategist and an election campaign manager, who is based in Hawke's Bay.
