Safety fears skewed by gang presence

Barry Leadbeater has been burgled six times in the past 12 months.

Were you surprised that the safety fear factor of Hawke's Bay adults is the highest in the country?

A Ministry of Justice survey asked adults to indicate how safe they felt, on a scale of 1 to 10.
More Hawke's Bay adults (38 per cent) than any other region scored themselves between 0 and 7.

Interestingly, though, reported crime is dropping in the region. The number of offences per 100 households in Hawke's Bay dropped from 58.5 in Cycle 1 (March to September 2018) to 29.3 in Cycle 2 (October 2018 to September 2019) to 25.8 in Cycle 3 (October 2019 to November 2020).

So the same survey that tells us we have a high safety concern also tells us that only 25 per cent of crime is reported to police.

Therefore any analysis of dropping crime versus rising safety fears needs to be seasoned with a healthy grain of salt.

Hawke's Bay Today this week spoke to Barry Leadbeater, a business owner who says he has not noticed a drop in crime - he fears for his safety after six burglaries in the past 12 months. And Barry fears break-ins have the potential to be violent.

His fear of what might happen is real.

"At the age of 72, you can't defend yourself like you used to be able to," he said. "You can't even run away like you used to.
"I feel uneasy. I worry that we will go to investigate and the person will get aggressive and I'll get attacked."

Leader of the Opposition Judith Collins stated the obvious this week in pointing to the gang situation in Hawke's Bay affecting opinion here, and criticising Labour for being soft on crime. Standard political rhetoric.

The reality of the situation is that we know we have a gang problem, and its presence has skewed our safety percentage.

We shouldn't ignore the result - and we aren't ignoring the gang problem. Neither should we ignore the positives.

Hawke's Bay as a region frequently tops economic optimism surveys. It has one of the strongest regional economies in the country.

It's a diverse economy that spreads the load-bearing weight. In 2018, economists told us "you're last to the (housing market) party, but you'll party hard''.
We have.

Former police Minister Stuart Nash reckons he has never felt unsafe in Napier, and Tukituki MP Anna Lorck says the region is great for raising a family.

Nash is entitled to his opinion and Lorck is right, but ultimately its irrelevant how any MP feels about their own safety or experience.

How they interpret how voters feel, and what our MPs do about that, is what matters.