Region may face drought conditions

Hawke's Bay's much-needed rain to stave off drought conditions may arrive soon. Photo / Warren Buckland

Farmers are hoping yesterday's sweltering 30C for the twin-cities isn't indicative of what's in store this summer.

Their concerns are shared by Hawke's Bay Regional Council senior climate and air scientist Kathleen Kozyniak, who says the region needs more rain and "a lot less wind" if it is to keep drought conditions at bay

"Rain was sparse through November, managing just half the usual total and the wind did its best to suck all the moisture out of us," she said.

"River flows are lower than normal in most places and our main aquifers wouldn't say no to a touch more rain."

She said soil moisture had fallen and the council's Bridge Pa measuring site was starting summer at the same point as the 2012/13 summer.

"We'll be keeping tabs to see if it leads to similar drought conditions."

Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay provincial president Will Foley said nobody was talking drought just yet.

"It is looking like a normal Hawke's Bay summer at this stage, albeit it has come a few weeks early," he said.

"It has created a mad rush getting stock to the works pre-Christmas and - fingers crossed - we will get a normal autumn and rain will start again late February/early March.

"If it doesn't rain in January/February then that's a normal Hawke's Bay summer.

"We can't complain because we have had a pretty good season until now, but certainly if conditions get much worse we will have to be vigilant."

He said meat prices were very good. "They have just come off their peak as the pressure came on, with farmers trying to kill stock, but they are still historically high especially with beef.

"Lamb prices are at a steady higher-level and wool prices have come off their low, so there is plenty to smile about."

Dr Kozyniak said there was a 16C range between the hottest and coldest day in November, "so most of the month was spent throwing duvets on and off and not straying too far from a woolly jumper".

"If you braved togs in public for a spring swim then you're probably not yet middle-aged, but will be happy to know that the region's water quality was good for bathing, apart from the odd sample that we're busy following up."

Rain forecast this week could offer some respite.

Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said winds, sunshine and a lack of rainfall had left the region drier than was normal for this time of year.

"The eastern part of the North Island has been very dry for the past few weeks," he said.

"Much of Hawke's Bay is dry, especially central and southern Hawke's Bay. In the past two weeks a lot of places in Hawke's Bay have received only one third of what is normal rainfall."

Bay of Plenty, the East Cape and Wairarapa were suffering below-average moisture levels.

He could not confirm whether the dry conditions were indicative of an impending drought.

"The soil moisture deficit is greater than it should be at this time of year. If those conditions were to persist it wouldn't be a good thing."

In the next seven to 14 days there would be a greater chance of rainfall to break the trend, depending on windflow. Easterly winds would be much more conducive to stemming dryness.

MetService meteorologist Frances Russell said there was rain or showers forecast for most of the week, but much of Monday and Tuesday would be dry, with rain developing on Wednesday evening."

Showers this morning would give way to fine breaks later. Tuesday would be fine with northerlies developing. Wednesday would see high cloud and rain in the evening.

The rain was expected to persist through to the weekend. Today's expected daytime high is 19C.