Rain forecast for Hawke's Bay - but is it enough?

This stand of trees near Central Hawke's Bay will get a long-awaited watering later in the week with rain forecast for Hawke's Bay from Tuesday. Photo/Paul Taylor

Rain forecast for later this week in Hawke's Bay won't come soon enough for farmers now starting to feel the effects of months of lower-than-normal rainfall in the region.

The rain is forecast for Tuesday to Friday, and follows a dry August which maintained a climatic trend dating back through last summer.

It is highlighted by figures for Napier and Hastings, where rainfall has been below average in six of the nine months this year, through which the rain is less than three-quarters of the January-August average which is calculated from rainfall data over the last 30 years.

Rainfall at MetService reading stations at Hawke's Bay Airport and in Hastings in August was less than half the August average, which is based on figures dating back 30 years.

The situation was worse in August, with the 26.2mm at the airport being less than half the August average, and the 30.8mm in Hastings being even worse at just 37 per cent.

The rainfall at other major recording stations Mahia and Takapau Plains is also well below average.

This week's rain, which is however not expected to be more than 20-30mm in any area, is linked to a "severe weather outlook" for much of the North Island and parts of the South Island, but not Hawke's Bay.

Issued by MetService on Sunday morning, the forecast is for "strong and moist" northeasterlies across northern and central New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a complex area of low pressure, which will bring rain to most places.

There is "moderate confidence" rainfall will reach warning criteria about Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne north of Tokomaru Bay.

The localised forecasts for Hawke's Bay has some rain each day from Tuesday to Saturday.

Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay provincial president Jim Galloway said with a forecast of northeasterlies more rain should be seen towards the Heretaunga Plains, where the rainfall has been lightest.

He said that while farmers in most areas had been doing well with their stock, in particular closer to the ranges, most could do with the forecast rain, and falls such as those about September 5 last year, highlighted by about 90mm in 24 hours in Napier, could happen at any time from July to November. "You can't really plan for it," he said.