Will Melody Belle, with jockey Opie Bosson and strapper Mette Mosebo, show the effects of travelling through the Taupo/Napier hills come the Livamol Classic? Photo/Ian Cooper
The prudent will tell you juxtaposing Melody Belle's potential three-peat feat in Hastings this Saturday with Winx's accomplishments is tantamount to drawing a long bow.
What isn't, though — the brains trust will impress — is that the magnificent mare will bring a modicum of Winx's aura when she deftly charges out of gate two in the feature $250,000 Livamol Classic at 4.40pm.
The Jamie Richards-trained Melody Belle, with Opie Bosson in the saddle, is on the cusp of doing what no horse has ever done here in dramatically dropping the curtains on the final leg of the Bostock New Zealand Spring Racing Carnival group one trilogy.
Those in the know are shouting from the rooftops that it's the 5-year-old Commands mare's weight-for-age race to lose over 2040m.
If there are any doubts, the bookies' odds goes a fair way to stop the rot. Melody Belle is overwhelming favourites on $1.25 and upstart Vernanme (pronounced Vern and me), under the tutelage of Stephen Marsh, offers $7 while Mongolian Marsh (Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman) comes in at $9. The rest of the field is adrift in the moolah stakes, perhaps symptomatic of how the race will unfold cometh the shade more than two minutes.
So why has no horse ever gone on to clinch the stayers' leg after claiming the opening 1400m Tarzino Trophy and the Windsor Park Plate mile (1600m)?
A logical assumption is, akin to cricketers, not everyone is a genuine allrounder. Yes, occasionally, adroit trainers tend to inject their mounts into any given equation for variable returns on conditioning early in the season or to blow away dormancy down the road but, either way, results aren't always the overriding factor.
Melody Belle can add an illustrious chapter to spring carnival history here but it's what previous horses, in the mould of Starcraft (2004, Leith Innes) and Seachange (2006-07, Gavin McKeon), also had flirted with before pulling up shy that demands analysis.
Richards, who missed the Windsor Park Plate a fortnight ago because he was in Sydney with the Te Akau Racing's other contenders across the ditch, will be in the same position again.
Te Akau principal David Ellis, who had forked out $57,500 for the mare from a Haunui Farm draft at the 2016 national yearling sale, will be here instead.
Melody Belle has now prevailed in 13 of her 23 starts, including eight group one events, and will add to her Fortuna syndicate's close to $2 million in prizemoney.
Ordained the New Zealand Horse of the Year last month, she had made a mockery of a devil's barrier philosophy with an emphatic victory to clinch the Tarzino Trophy with jockey Michael McNab on August 31.
"It's never an easy decision to make but we're a stable that's based in New Zealand with a great team of staff here so it makes sense to leave it to the guys here who know what's happening so I can go over to give one staff member who has a couple of nice horses in Australia a hand," says Richards.
The float ride from Matama through the Taupo-Napier highway hills can have its toll on Melody Belle but industry playmakers reckon she's pure class and done it twice so that shouldn't affect her that much the third time.
Vernanme, Richards says, is the one to watch after winning over 1600m in Counties last Sunday although their preoccupation, understandably, is with what Melody Belle is doing rather than any other rival. He played bat/pad to any pressure on him and the stable from other trainers as well.
"We don't worry about that too much [because] we just enjoy the moment so she can do a good job for us," he says, confirming Bosson will be back.
The jockey has three Livamol Classics under his belt — Distinctly Secret (2003), Princess Coup (2008), Shez Sensational (2012).
To the uninitiated, it seems to be an ambitious task for Vernanme who had prevailed on the heels of fellow 3-year-old maiden winner, Musical Blues, in a mid-week race to boost the resume of Auckland NZTBA branch members and breeders Vern and Margaret Trillo.
The 4-year-old O'Reilly horse, out of Bohemian Blues (NZ), had a third placing in the group 2 Avondale Guineas over 2100m on a good track in February.
The Trillos race Vernanme, along with this colt's co-breeder, Kevin Hickman. Vernanme is a full brother to the champion three-year-old Australian filly of 2010-11 Shamrocker, a winner of four races including two group ones — the Australian Derby and the Australian Guineas.
While the Lisa Latta-trained Sentimental Miss isn't in her best form, pundits reckon, she cannot be ruled out because of group one victory in the New Zealand Oaks in Wellington earlier this year. The 4-year-old Reliable Man mare did the job on a heavy dead 6 track over 2400m.
The Hawke's Bay contenders are the Guy Lowry and Grant Cullen co-trained Atlanta Peach (jockey Troy Harris) from barrier one as well as Peso (Rosie Myers), under the tutelage of Paul Nelson and Corrina McDougal, from barrier eight.