Matamata trainer Jamie Richards (left) takes stock with Te Akau Racing boss David Ellis during the New Zealand Bloodstock Yearling Sales at Karaka in January. Photo/NZME
What difference will 200m make in three weeks for a rampant horse and her gung-ho jockey?
Of course, other variables will kick in — such as persistent drizzle from Tuesday through to tonight, a slow 7 track at the Hawke's Bay racecourse in Hastings mutating into a dead 5 at last check to wintry climes — when the marquee 1600m weight-for-age Group 1 race at 4.28pm punctuates the $200,000 Windsor Park Plate in Hastings today.
The champion combination in the numerical equation is Melody Belle and jockey Shafiq Rusof, under the tutelage of Jamie Richards.
Richards feels his charges will be sticking "pretty much to the same" script today.
The Matamata trainer chalked up his maiden solo Group 1 victory in the first leg of the Bostock New Zealand Spring Racing Carnival trilogy, the 1400m Tarzino Trophy, Daffodil Raceday, here in 20C conditions on September 1 when Malayasian-born Rusof, who returned to New Zealand after plying his trade in Singapore, crossed the line in 1m 24.59s, half a length ahead of Hiflyer and Johnathan Parkes.
The victory brought sheer joy to the 34-owner Fortuna Melody Belle Syndicate members, almost in a similar vein to what had transpired in the Windsor Park Plate here last year.
Richards, who was training in tandem with Stephen Autridge from May 2015 after joining Te Akau Racing in March 2014 as racing manager, ended the partnership in August.
Last year, Autridge and Richards had created a similar commotion with an orange-clad syndicate when they co-trained Gingernuts, with Opie Bosson, to Windsor Park Plate victory here.
Unlike his stable hand Teina Walters, who fancies himself as horse-racing commentator some day, Richards is playing his cards close to his chest.
"We're hoping to do well. She's got a nice draw so she should have a nice run around to the finish," he somewhat understates of Melody Belle who has drawn the No 1 barrier.
"She likes to get on the speed so that's going to help her," he reckons.
Our Abbadean, with Danielle Johnson in the saddle, "will have to go back a little bit" in his calculations from the No 13 barrier, although he expects her to finish strongly.
"The [contrasting] draws suits both horses."
The 6-year-old Bay mare, sired from Lookin At Lucky (US) out of the Highland Lights (Australia), was third in the Tarzino Trophy race, a long neck behind Hiflyer.
Richards has bracketed Our Abbadean for race one in the final spring carnival leg, the Livamol Classic, on October 6 before race two at the Christchurch Casino 155th New Zealand Cup on November 17 at Riccarton Park.
He sees the Peter Lock-trained Hiflyer as Melody Belle's biggest threat.
"He's got good form ... and has a good record at the mile so he looks the hardest to beat, really," he says of the 6-year-old Tavistock gelding.
It's a firm "no" to weather making any difference today or offering any advice to Rusof on how to ride Melody Belle, who has pocketed the owners $1.1 million to date.
The 31-year-old rider, who has the Singapore Gold Cup victory under his belt, was on a five-race winning streak after the Tarzino Trophy victory.
If luck does really play a decisive role then Richards is overly blessed with a No 1 barrier for Avantage, with jockey Johnson in the saddle, in the $70,000 group three Hawke's Bay Breeders Gold Trail Stakes.
The 1200m dash for the 3-year-old fillies, which starts at 2.42pm, puts the Fastnet Rock (Australia) filly in good stead, after having "travelled and galloped well leading into the race".
Richards takes all that favouritism talk in his stride.
"You've got to get used it," quips the 28-year-old trainer from the Taieri Plains, in east Otago, who went on to assume the mantle of the head of New Zealand's richest racing stable, Te Akau Racing.
The former Wingatui stablehand and track work rider is the son of former Wingatui trainers Paul and Leanne Richards said and is living his dream.
But for the former Otago Boys' High School student, tertiary tuition, in tandem with equine pursuits, was the order in realising those dreams.
The Otago University bachelor of commerce in management and accounting and a postgraduate diploma in marketing graduate's credentials left an indelible impression on Te Akau Racing honcho David Ellis.
"It has certainly helped David promote me, the fact that I went to university," Richards had told Otago Daily Times before officially taking his position.
"Certainly having that university education and doing a bit of travel and having that scholarship has been a big help."
Richards ground his teeth working alongside his parents and, reportedly, his father will work for Te Akau Racing and under his son's direction.
Ellis' decision to muster fewer horses opened the door for Richards "to step up" with the former's blessings.