Paul Spoonley: Winning numbers game a challenge

Professor Paul Spoonley

It seems that Hawke's Bay might have turned a corner on a couple of fronts.

Firstly, there is growing evidence that Aucklanders are looking to move to the regions according to recent data. And secondly, the Prime Minister's announcement a couple of weeks ago that Immigration NZ is going to encourage immigrants to consider the regions as a destination by increasing the points required to settle in a non-Auckland destination.

Hawke's Bay Today's front page last week reflected the first and Andrew Austin's editorial on immigration was a rallying call on the second. But can I voice a couple of cautions - and then offer a suggestion.

There are significant incentives for Auckland residents, whether they are New Zealand-born or immigrants, to consider regions as alternative places to live. The price of housing and some of the disincentives of living in Auckland (such as the pressure on transport) are such that there are significant push-factors, especially when the regional differences in the cost of housing is factored in.

But the immediate beneficiary of these push-pull factors are those areas closest to Auckland and cities like Hamilton and Tauranga. Considering that in the 12 months to June, house prices increased in Auckland by 25 per cent but only by 5 per cent in Hamilton, comparisons are inevitable. But the numbers moving to regions from Auckland decreases in size the further from Auckland the region is.

Secondly, Auckland will be the recipient of 60 per cent of New Zealand's total population growth (whether from immigration or natural increase) over the coming decades. And it is the centre of current jobs growth in New Zealand (44 per cent in the last 12 months compared to the fact that it is home to about a third of all New Zealanders). Housing is one consideration in moving to a region; jobs are equally important.

And finally, the numbers currently moving out of Auckland are still very modest compared to the growth of Auckland, and the movement of largely younger New Zealanders (and immigrants) who are moving to the city, not away from it. Even relatively small numbers moving from Auckland to Hawke's Bay would have a significant impact on the region but the move to all regions is only a very small consideration in terms of the overall population growth of the city.

The population forecasts for Hawke's Bay for the next decade are two-fold: there will not be much growth if any, and the most significant factor in that growth will be those over the age of 65. If the Bay is to attract Aucklanders and/or immigrants (they might be the same thing of course, given that 40 per cent of Aucklanders are born overseas), then it might need to be more proactive in attracting people to the region.

I have argued before that the Bay would benefit from a concerted effort to attract immigrants who would bring capital, businesses and skills to the region which in turn would help diversify the local economy and significantly boost economic innovation. Younger immigrants would help balance the population profile and would contribute to the skills mix of the region. But the latter should not be at the expense of employing locals. (There is a particular challenge in the region at the moment in terms of providing post secondary qualifications for school leavers or getting them into employment).

I agree with Andrew Austin that "the future is looking good" but it would be a false hope if the region was to rely on Auckland's problems to be the catalyst for growth - population or in terms of jobs. Hawke's Bay needs to do its bit to make sure that the additional residents add to the economic viability of the region, not simply begin to transfer housing demand from Auckland to the Bay. And how to attract immigrants when the numbers arriving in the country are at an all-time high is a particular challenge.

-Professor Paul Spoonley is the Pro Vice-Chancellor of the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Massey University

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