New research points to New Zealand's costliest floods coinciding with "atmospheric rivers", but Niwa says November's flood in Napier was not directly triggered by the phenomena.
Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that move huge columns of water vapour in the direction of preceding weather.
Not all atmospheric rivers cause damage, but most - when hitting landfall - trigger a rain event of some sort.
Niwa forecaster Ben Noll and scholar Hamish Prince, who wrote his thesis "A Climatology of New Zealand Atmospheric Rivers" last year, said although there was no atmospheric river present on November 9 when Napier experienced record-breaking rainfall, a foundation for the deluge was laid by two atmospheric rivers that passed over New Zealand in the preceding four days.
"The trigger for the event itself was more likely to be the convergence of low-level winds in the atmosphere, forcing air to rise and causing rain — when there is enough moisture around, as was the case on November 9, the rain can be intense," they said.