More fine weather to come

Taking advantage of the fine weather was this lawn mower at the Napier Botanical Gardens yesterday. Photo / Duncan Brown

Rain is a possibility later this week but, for now, expect fine weather to continue.

MetService said that, while rain was forecast for the region's ranges today and tomorrow, the dry coastal areas would likely miss out.

Forecaster Rebekah LaBar said Napier and Hastings would both hit a high of 25C today.

"Unfortunately, that means Hawke's Bay is unlikely to get any rain in the next day or so at least," she said.

The chance of showers increased later in the week, she said.

Weatherwatch.co.nz said a significant tropical cyclone was likely to affect the tropics directly north of New Zealand over the next several days. But a direct hit to New Zealand was looking less likely, thanks to building high pressure in the Southern Ocean.

Over the weekend, computer models align a little more, placing the low just east of New Zealand when it moves down next week. But building high pressure over the country it will make it hard for the then ex-cyclone to turn in towards us to make a direct hit.

However, it will be close offshore and, even if the weather is settled in New Zealand, swells and potentially deadly rips are likely along our eastern coastline for a time.

They will especially affect the North Island's east coast from Northland to the Bay of Plenty and from Gisborne to Wairarapa. Highest risk for rough seas will be between March 15-19.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan said another storm was likely to follow this low, this time forming to the northwest over the Coral Sea and tracking southeast towards New Zealand.

"Coral Sea lows are actually often in a better position to reach New Zealand but, like the current developing storm, high pressure over New Zealand will be the main guiding factor when this second low comes down towards us in the final week of March. A lot can happen between now and then," Mr Duncan said.

"The second potential cyclone looks much smaller in size too, but indicates the weather pattern has changed in our part of the world now that summer has ended.

"We are now seeing real life in the tropics, plenty of lows and cyclones forming over the next few weeks - and we hope it's just a matter of time before everything lines up nicely to bring in a soaking subtropical rain event for parched farms."