A lawyer, Winston's first political foray was as National candidate in Northern Maori in 1975. He performed credibly and was selected to run for National in the marginal seat of Hunua in 1978.
Though he lost on election night he took an Electoral Petition which disallowed hundreds of votes (including his own) and delivered him the seat.
Defeated in 1981, Winston staged a comeback in Tauranga in 1984 and held the seat for twenty-one years having left National to form New Zealand First in 1993.
The first MMP elections of 1996 saw New Zealand First win seventeen seats and after weeks of too-ing and fro-ing formed a coalition government with Jim Bolger's National Party. Winston became Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer.
With the toppling of Jim Bolger this coalition collapsed and in the following 1999 election, Winton's New Zealand First Party held on in Parliament solely due to Winston's narrow win in Tauranga validating New Zealand First's sub 5% party vote.
Recovering to ten per cent of the party vote in 2002 but not finding itself in a pivot position, Winston went on the road and in 2005, though he lost his Tauranga seat, led his party to nearly six per cent of the vote and a coalition agreement with Helen Clark's third term Labour government.
This arrangement enraged National politicians who seem to have previously regarded Winston as a normally friendly renegade.
They launched wave after wave of personal attacks on him. These, as I knew for certain, were untrue and unfair.
In 2008 with just 4% of the party vote and no Tauranga as an insurance policy, New Zealand First was wiped out as a parliamentary party and Winston was back on the road full-time.
At this point nearly all political commentators wrote Winston off as a political force, but he had been diligent in his party-building work and New Zealand First now existed independently of any parliamentary representation.
Defying all predictions, the 2011 general election saw Winston staging yet another comeback with 6.6% of the party vote and eight MPs. Three years later, again flouting the soothsayers, New Zealand First won 8.7% of the party vote and eleven seats.
Polls now have Winston's party at around ten per cent. He is either at, or close to the
kingmaker position again.
It is interesting to speculate on what propels this truly remarkable political longevity.
I have met Winston on several occasions and was an early port of call when New Zealand First began negotiating for a place in government after the 2005 election.
Though one of the last few smokers, his is always immaculately turned out, displays impeccable manners, has a warm personality and an infectious sense of humour.
He works incredibly hard, however, I think his longstanding appeal to between five and fifteen per cent of voters comes from a few consistent policies some of which are now again current.
In a recent speech, which (unusually), got media attention, Winston identified his party with the "wave of discontent" which drove Brexit and elected Donald Trump.
It's worth noting this speech.
Winston has an established track record in opposing the kind of record high levels of immigration which have characterised the Key/English government. That issue drove much of the support for Brexit and Donald Trump.
He could also ride a tide where economic "losers" are rebelling against what he calls a "cosmopolitan elite".
A friend attended a packed Winston rally in solidly National voting Matamata last year. These messages fell on fertile political ground.
As his recent attack on the "anti-smacking" law suggests he's targeting the National vote, bloated by the John Key factor, but now shaky.
A good fun campaign is ahead. Winston's a great performer and could easily decide who governs next.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.
