Mike Williams: There is intense competition for the right-wing vote

Mike Williams says Act leader David Seymour has far more political experience and a better strategic mind than National's Christopher Luxon displays. Photo / NZME

The week saw two MPs resign from their parties, Elizabeth Kerekere and Meka Whaitiri.

In both cases, there is much water to pass under the bridge before the impact of their precipitate decisions becomes evident. I’ll therefore save any analysis for a later date.

The October election promises to be one of the most interesting. With polls pointing to a close result, this outcome would be a return to normality under the MMP electoral system.

It’s worth recalling that MMP was devised for post-war West Germany by American constitutional experts who were tasked with designing a system that made single-party governments unlikely.

This system is used at the federal and state level in now-united Germany and a cursory look at election results in that country shows that the American professionals have achieved their goal of multi-party governments.

The current majority Labour Government elected in 2020 is an aberration brought about by this Government’s adroit handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, Grant Robertson’s deft management of the pandemic’s economic fall-out and National Party’s divisions compounded by a truly frightful election campaign.

One fascinating aspect of the contest, already on display, is the intense competition for the right-wing vote between National and Act.

Act is attempting to colonise the National Party’s rural heartland with policies that would weaken our response to climate change but please the “Groundswell” supporters who seek to remove what they call “unworkable environmental regulations”.

This is code for measures to combat climate change.

Mike Williams. Photo / NZME

The party has also recruited former Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard as an Act candidate, surely a slap in the face for National, once the undisputed farmer’s party.

National has responded with policies like the restoration of live animal exports but it will need to be careful not to alienate the urban “blue green” supporters the party must win to return to government.

The recent Australian federal election saw the Liberal Party (National’s Australian equivalent) lose six of its safest urban seats to ‘Teal Independents’ (named for the colour that is produced by mixing blue and green) who campaigned on the need for action on climate change.

All of the Teal MPs are women and there is solid research that they were disproportionately supported by women fretting about climate change.

National can’t move too far to the right on environmental issues without risking the same fate as the Australian Liberals. I have met Act leader David Seymour on several occasions. He has far more political experience and a better strategic mind than National’s Christopher Luxon displays and will be well aware of National’s dilemma.

It will be hard for National to outdo Act’s crime and corrections policy announced last week.

This policy mandates a new billion-dollar jail, and the intention to jail 2500 extra prisoners.

The need for a new jail in this policy is partly justified by a report that Remutaka jail is full.

This is wrong. There are, right now, more than 1000 free spaces in New Zealand jails and Remutaka Jail has 60 beds available.

The extra prisoners will cost you and me as taxpayers around $375 million a year.

Act’s objective is not serious but to capture the “tough on crime” voters. This is a smallish group of voters that normally supports National.

I find this dramatic rightward move by Act very disappointing. Some years ago I addressed an Act Party conference as CEO of the NZ Howard League. At that meeting, Seymour announced a policy of reduced sentences for prisoners who undertook self-improvement while in jail. This policy was immediately adopted by Bill English. International experience demonstrates that such an approach heavily reduces re-offending.

That flash of enlightenment by Act has sadly now gone.

Brooke van Velden, Act deputy leader, has announced that she will run against Simon O’Connor, the socially conservative National MP for Tamaki. This is another Act of provocation to National.

Though both National and Act are already campaigning on heavily reduced government spending.

National has been careful to avoid specifying the cuts they would make if elected beyond using fewer consultants, a trivial proportion of the country’s expenditure.

Act’s plan is to stop minimum wage increases for three years, target KiwiSaver subsidies and the winter energy payment, and bring back 90-day trials for businesses.

These are exactly the sorts of policies that motivated habitual non-voters to participate in the 2005 general election and deny Don Brash electoral victory.

* Mike Williams grew up in Hawke’s Bay and is a former Labour Party president.