In reply, Heather Simpson made the very good point that as soon as the election date is known the media starts giving opposition parties some of the "equal time" that they grant during the campaign period proper.
We saw this happen this week, and I can't help feeling that announcing an election date this early in 2017 is a tactical error by Bill English.
This strategy may have been fine when the unsinkable John Key was captain of the ship, but in my view Bill English is going to need every advantage he can glean.
Though in previous columns I've warned against trusting the value of precedent to make predictions in this very unstable political environment, Bill English will need to shake two hoodoos.
Number one, the track record of unelected Prime Ministers winning elections following their elevation to the top job is miserable.
Keith Holyoake lost in 1957, Bill Rowling lost in 1975, Mike Moore lost 1990 and Jenny Shipley lost in 1999.
Add in hoodoo number two; that four term governments are extremely rare and you'll see why history is not Mr English's friend.
The fact that no unelected Prime Minister has led his or her party back to victory at least since World War Two is possibly chance, but the difficulty around winning a fourth term is real and can be explained at least in part.
Here's one reason.
Prime Minister English, in his state of the nation speech last week announced a half a billion dollars to fund extra Police and anti-crime initiatives.
Like most of the National Party's initiatives, this would have been driven by polls, and the opposition parties' immediately asked why, after nearly nine years of a National Government in power was crime so far out of control that more than a thousand new Police were required.
Add this to the fact that a billion dollars plus will have to be spent on new jails to house all of the extra prisoners and you could be forgiven for concluding that National's fight against crime over nearly a decade has been a miserable failure.
Any new initiative by a third term government can be interpreted as an admission of failure and that's exactly what Winston Peters and Andrew Little did this week.
Another factor which makes a fourth term so difficult to win is the knowledge that, historically, a third term government will soon endure a term in opposition.
This is a put-off for aspiring MPs.
I have personally experienced this situation and know that top quality candidates become difficult to recruit as they know they will probably have a long wait before a Ministerial slot beckons.
Hawke's Bay Today readers will have noted that the Napier National Party has twice extended the candidate nomination period. This is a sure sign that they can't find anyone credible to face Labour MP Stuart Nash and tells us something about National's internal polling.
A third influence which sometimes appears and stymies attempts at fourth terms is an insurgent party.
In 1984, Rob Muldoon's third term National party Government had to deal with Bob Jones' New Zealand Party. This came out of nowhere to score twelve and a half per cent of the vote and contributed heavily to consigning Muldoon's government to the history books.
The first-past-the post electoral system meant that Jones' party won no seats, but had the current MMP system been in operation, The New Zealand Party would have won 15 seats.
In 2017 we have the prospect of Gareth Morgan's The Opportunity Party or "TOP".
Although recent insurgent parties like the Conservatives and Internet/Mana have failed to reach parliament, TOP could break the mould.
Multi millionaire Gareth Morgan is probably best known for his publicly expressed desire to save native birds by obliterating domestic cats, however the man has genuine intellectual grunt and I've enjoyed books he's written on a range of topics from climate change to unpaid work.
With a large group of voters now up for grabs with John Key's departure it is not inconceivable that Dr Morgan's party will get the 120,000 votes needed to win seats.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.
