The general election of 2020 where the Labour Party achieved more than 50 per cent of the vote was an anomaly.
This is only the third time a party has reached this milestone in the last 100 years.
It is most likely that the 2023 election will be like every other MMP election and produce a close result.
If the National Party is to win such a close contest Luxon must address some major challenges.
First is the parlous state of the National Party's organisation.
Party president Peter Goodfellow presided over the worst ever campaign by a major political party I've witnessed, and he is well past his use-by date. His party's candidate selections have too often been disastrous.
Luxon should move him on and find someone who will at least try to revive National's organisation on the ground.
Labour prevailed in the ultra-tight 2005 general election via its activists on the ground turning out enrolled electors who often failed to vote.
Second, in my view, Luxon must also dump some of his caucus and recruit new and diverse blood.
Maureen Pugh, who cosied up to anti-vaxxers and was described by Simon Bridges as "f.....g useless" is one and Judith Collins is another.
National's Tauranga by-election candidates didn't auger well for greater diversity. All were middle aged Pākehā men.
Third, as voters begin to think about their vote, one important focus is policy.
Luxon has been vocal about Labour's so-called overspending, but he has not defined what spending National will cut out if elected.
His only example of wastefulness so far has been the "Te Huia" passenger train that runs between Hamilton and Auckland.
This did get off to a slow start but is now a great success.
My son and his wife took a day trip to Hamilton two weeks ago and reported a full train. The service is popular in Hamilton and a shot in the arm for Waikato tourism – a region Luxon badly needs to win back to have any chance of governing.
Luxon should heed John Key's dictum – every dollar governments spend has a constituency.
Number four. Though he promised "new thinking", his only policy so far has been an old one – tax cuts for the already comfortably off.
This announcement was followed, predictably, by reports of the very wealthy making large donations to the National Party.
This is repeat of the Key Government which made similar tax cuts in 2009 and reduced the government's income to such a degree that what followed was a series of what were called "Zero Budgets" in years where the population was growing.
We are still paying the price of this short-termism with run down education and health systems, and a surge in the number of people living beneath the poverty line.
Though Luxon has said that "Labour can't be trusted on tax", it was Key's National Government that increased GST in 2010 after promising that it wouldn't.
He must take greater care with his accusations or risk getting labelled the pot that called the kettle black.
Climate change policy is another area Luxon will be forced to address if National has any chance of capturing the support of younger voters.
At present National accepts that climate change is real but opposes any practical steps to slow it.
Last but not least, Luxon will need to challenge Jacinda Ardern on the hustings and in the leader's debates during next year's election campaign.
Many electors vote for prime ministers rather than parties and so far, Luxon has not demonstrated the ability to come close to matching Ardern in parliamentary question time.
Given these challenges, my view is that Luxon's opportunity is not next year but 2026.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is chief executive of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today
