The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on February 24 is the natural result of a fascist autocracy where a dictator holds all power, gets increasingly detached from reality by surrounding themselves with fawning yes-men, and ultimately brings about their own downfall.
A former KGB operative, Vladimir Putin may survive for a while due to the extraordinary layers of protection he has surrounded himself with, but his costly error in attacking a European democracy could easily be the final act of his 22-year reign.
A number of unfounded beliefs have led Putin to his current position.
His speeches tell us he thinks that Ukraine is and has always been an integral part of the Russian Republic and that his takeover would be welcomed by the Ukrainian people.
Both of these beliefs are nonsense.
Ukraine became independent again more than 30 years ago at the break-up of the USSR and after periods of independence in the past.
It has its own language, culture, and traditions.
The Government of the USSR in 1946 recognised Ukraine's sovereignty by insisting it become a separate founding member of the United Nations.
The yes-men who surround Putin assured him that a Russian invasion would be welcomed by Ukrainians.
This was immediately proven wrong.
It has been reported that the senior Russian spies who claimed to have penetrated the Ukrainian elite and reported this "fact" to Putin are now under arrest, though in an autocratic society where all media are controlled by Putin and his cronies, we won't know this for sure.
The clue is that these people are no longer seen in public.
Such is the commitment of Ukrainians to their independence and democracy that at the time of writing, the heavily outnumbered and outgunned armed forces of Ukraine are driving the Russians back in key parts of their homeland.
Fascists think democracies are by definition divided and weak, as evidenced by the fact ordinary people can change governments.
This may be somewhat true of the Russian people.
Twenty years ago, I addressed a group of visiting Russian students on NZ's democracy.
They looked like any group of Kiwi students except for the absence of brown faces.
Most interesting was when I asked if democracy would be taking root in their homeland.
This meeting occurred very early in the reign of Vladimir Putin when something resembling fair elections had not quite been snuffed out.
I was surprised to be told by this group that some kind of autocracy in Russia was inevitable because of the size and history of the country. When I pointed out there were now many large and democratic countries with little history of democracy, I was met with what is best described as a group shrug.
With no opportunity to change governments, corruption becomes inevitable, and this has been a reason for the stalled Russian invasion.
One telling photograph shows an undamaged but abandoned "Pantsir" surface-to-air artillery piece. An eagle-eyed military analyst noted that this multimillion-dollar device was equipped with cheap Chinese knock-off tyres that were unable to carry the weight of the fully equipped vehicle.
Chronic pilfering is thought to explain why frontline Russian troops are short of supplies.
By uniting Nato and democracies in general against fascism, Russia has done a huge disservice to its only significant ally, China.
Another fascist autocracy, China badly wants to rule democratic Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province.
The odds of the world standing by and letting this happen are now heavily reduced thanks to Putin's arrogance and stupidity.
• Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is chief executive of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.