Top scientists arrive in Hawke’s Bay to see how the region can better prepare for future weather events.
Months after Cyclone Gabrielle, eight million metric tons of sediment is still lying in the devastated Esk Valley.
While the clean-up continues, top scientists from around the country have arrived in Hawke’s Bay to understand how the region can better prepare for future extreme climate events.
Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall announced a $10.8 million fund for urgent scientific research.
“I’ve seen New Zealand’s best scientists here on the ground, and they’re building strong relationships with regional councils to make sure that their cutting-edge information is available for the people who need it,” she said.
GNS Science engineering geologist Kerry Leith started working on the region’s recovery two days after the cyclone hit, surveying the valley by helicopter.
“I’ve never seen so many landslides of different types in the same place. It was really surprising, and I hope I never see it again.”
The science team will work on mapping out the landslides to generate future prediction models.
“The next time there’s a rainfall event, we’ll be able to use this data to better predict where the landslides will occur and how far they’ll run out,” he said.
Another scientist, James Brasington, spent five weeks building 3D models of 2000 square kilometres of landscape in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne.
“We can actually physically measure how the landscape has gone up, where we’ve got floodplain sedimentation, all the silt and sands on the floodplain,” he said.
Brasington and his team also did a Lidar survey that covered most of the Esk Valley.
“We’ve measured around nearly eight million metric tons of sediment that’s been deposited, and about 4000 metric tons of material that was eroded.”
Scientists believe natural disasters like Cyclone Gabrielle are going to become more frequent.
Niwa natural hazards scientist Graeme Smart said what is considered a 300-year flood in the future may only be a 150-year flood.
“There’s an incredible increase in flood size. Looking at what’s happened around the world - one-third of Pakistan was underwater.”
With an increase in future extreme weather events expected, Smart said warning people about floods is a priority: “If we have adequate time from a warning, we can prepare, we can evacuate.”
Smart said the stopbanks in Hawke’s Bay were well-built, but the flood was bigger than anyone anticipated.
“If you put enough money in, you can put the river in a concrete channel. But this is incredibly expensive,” he said.
