As the waters around the central equatorial Pacific Ocean warm, there are predictions of a strong El Nino weather system developing which could mean we will be seeing parched dry land as pictured during the drought in 2020.
As the waters around the central equatorial Pacific Ocean warm, there are predictions of a strong El Nino weather system developing which could mean we will be seeing parched dry land as pictured during the drought in 2020.
OPINION
“Expect the unexpected.” While reading through an article on climate change some time ago, this phrase caught my attention and has been stuck in my mind ever since.
Having only moved to Hawke’s Bay about six months ago, I am starting to see its relevance, more so as a climate scientist.
A few months ago, Hawke’s Bay felt the fury of Cyclone Gabrielle. It was a striking reminder of the potential impacts of a warming climate - extreme and more severe weather events. Seven months later, the region is still recovering and will likely be on this path for a long time.
But just as we embark on this journey of recovery, a new threat emerges. Spring is here and as summer approaches, sunny days and warmer temperatures are rolling in. As the waters around the central equatorial Pacific Ocean warm, a strong El Nino signal is developing.
It’s been reported in the media that New Zealand’s climate will take a dramatic turn in the next few weeks, bringing hotter, drier, and windier days to Hawke’s Bay.
Nariefa Abrahim Bennet is a senior climate scientist at Hawke’s Bay Regional Council.
The region is being peppered with them as I write. While the country has experienced several strong El Nino events in the past, within a changing climate the expectations of what this El Nino brings is uncertain.
Indeed, the summer of 23/24 is likely to be quite different from the last two. As a climate scientist, the most worrying aspect of the looming threat of drought is the unsettling speed with which it’s following a catastrophic cyclone.
While the main consequences of climate change are warmer temperatures, increased wildfires, reduced snowpacks, more severe and frequent floods, and droughts, there is a new and emerging dimension to these events and that’s the wild and rapid swings between floods and severe droughts.
This phenomenon is dubbed “climate whiplash” and generally refers to the rapid shifts in extreme weather conditions – for example an abrupt swing between extreme droughts and unprecedented flooding.
As destructive as single extreme events are, consecutive occurrence or rapid shifts in weather conditions magnify the risks to the surrounding environment, ecosystems and livelihoods of underprepared communities.
Even with the advances in modelling tools and artificial intelligence in the weather forecasting space, there are still limits to our ability to predict what our future will look like. We’re left wondering if these wild swings in weather extremes is our “new normal”.
As climate change intensifies, extreme weather patterns are likely to continue, and their unpredictability brings a new challenge to the table, particularly for water management. It is possible that cyclones, floods, and droughts will continue to be part of our reality here in Hawke’s Bay and our communities must be ready to adapt to these extremes and the abrupt swings between events.
While the upcoming spring and summer of 23/24 remain uncertain, Hawke’s Bay has been on this wild ride before. The devastating flood event in November 2020, which led to widespread damage in Napier city was tailgated by six months of tenaciously dry conditions.
Given the summer we had last year, it’s difficult to even think about a much drier time, but with a potential drought on the horizon, we all need to be thinking of some water conservation methods. For many of us this might include:
· Rainwater tanks.
· Fixing leaky taps.
· Running the dishwasher and washing machine on eco settings.
