The truth of the matter is that, as a party, Labour is just not relevant anymore. Competing with the increasingly centrist Nats for the middle ground is unlikely to stir floating voters, of whom there are an increasingly small number anyway.
The Labour of old, whose passion for social justice and workers' rights was exuded with such fire, simply has no role in modern politics, partly because their passion has been diluted beyond repair and partly because every party now espouses those causes, albeit to different degrees and with different methodologies.
Modern Labour, ensconced in its position as principal opposition, has simply opposed; in doing so they have sacrificed their identity and allowed other parties to develop their agendas with much more freedom and independence.
The prime beneficiaries of Labour's decline have been the Greens, who are seemingly impregnable on the left.
Even though their policies are an unco-ordinated mish-mash of ideals and personal agendas, they have attracted disenfranchised left wingers and a significant element of younger voters to their cause.
But they are at least relevant; they have policies which attract segments of society on merit, rather than simply being a diametric opposite of the status quo.
For Labour to revive its flagging fortunes will be an uphill battle.
Centre left parties around the world are in a similar state of disrepair; in most cases they are little more than centre right parties masquerading as vaguely leftist.
In the UK, a sharp shift to the left has in part revitalised Labour, but not to the point of electability. It's hard to see Labour making a comeback in its current form, or via any new incarnation of the party
Its demise may be nearer than we think; a seriously poor showing in September may be the final straw.
A party whose leader changes with such frequency, whose chances of power are solely dependent on a coalition of uneasy bedfellows, and whose identity is opaque, is not to the public taste, nor will they attract high calibre candidates.
And many aspirant Labour MPs have themselves already shown lack of faith in the party. Here in Hawke's Bay, both Mr Nash and Anna Lorck have, by the very local nature of their campaigns, effectively distanced themselves from the party machine.
The appointment of Jacinda Ardern as their new leader demonstrates the turmoil within the party. Expecting her to galvanise their movement is naive. She is simply more of the same. Despite her bravado approach to a vigorous campaign, she is facing certain failure; it doesn't matter how hard you bang a broken drum, it remains broken.
To compete with the Nats who, let's face it, have done a decent job, Labour would have to reinvent itself. And the Greens have already done that for them.
History is littered with movements whose days of glory have ended in ignominious failure, and Labour is destined to join this sorry list.
Labour was founded on a wave of principle and passion at a time when it was most needed. But waves break and then run shallow into the shore. And so it is with Labour.
Jerry Flay is a freelance writer based in Hawke's Bay. Views expressed here are the writer's opinion and not the newspaper's. Email: editor@hbtoday.co.nz
