Hawke's Bay weather outlook: Wet, wet, wet

Pollen runs into a drain after heavy rain. Photo / Warren Buckland

Hawke's Bay is set for a drenching for most of the week, with downpours possibly approaching warning criteria, the MetService says.

The MetService yesterdayissued a heavy rain watch for the whole of Hawke's Bay, with heavy periods of rain expected between 3pm today and 6am tomorrow.

"Rainfall accumulation may approach warning criteria, so that's what we're expecting for the rest of the day - a rainy day," meteorologist Claire Flynn said.

The rain watch was issued due to a front, which is expected to stay slow-moving about East Cape and Bay of Plenty through to Monday. A low is forecast to move slowly southwest over Coromandel Peninsula this afternoon or evening, then weaken tomorrow.

The front and low are expected to deliver further periods of rain to eastern parts of the North Island, with heavy falls at times.

"Rain will be heavier around the ranges but the watch covers the whole area," Flynn said.

"On Monday, it will be another rainy day, possibly heavy rain around, especially in the morning, while that watch is in place."

Showers would still be around on Tuesday, with more scattered rain expected on Wednesday as another front comes through the region.

"So, it's sounding like a pretty wet week.

"It will be a wet few days, fining up again on Thursday.

"For Napier and Hastings temperature aren't looking to bad with a high of 14C on Monday, about 16C on Tuesday and 17C on Wednesday."

Once the rain clears on Thursday, the region could expect a high of about 18C.

Further ahead, the chance of a dry spring and summer appears to be growing, after the MetService's Rural Monthly Outlook said there was a chance of an EL Nino pattern developing between spring and summer.

"Seas in the tropical Pacific Area have been observed to be warmer than usual. We're still neutral at the moment - so neither El Nino or La Nina - however, there is a chance El Nino could develop."

The Monthly Outlook report said there was a 65 per cent chance an El Nino would develop during spring and a 70 per cent chance of it during summer.

"El Nino in New Zealand usually means a lot of southwesterlies, generally, more wet in the west and dry in the east.

"It's still winter at the moment but as we head towards spring we will have more information and then adjust those probabilities, based on that."