Growers hope for classic summer

Growers in Hawke's Bay are hoping for a warm summer.

Fruit, grape and vegetable growers across Hawke's Bay are living in hope they will be spared the seasonal hail which puts most on danger watch the two months before Christmas each year.

The hopes come in the face of season and climate predictions some have said are the most unusual in years, including even the slightest of frosts near Hastings last week.

But one orchardist told Hawke's Bay Today that after all the talk of El Nino the region may be moving into "simply, a classic Hawke's Bay summer".

Certainly, MetService forecasts don't currently point to a likelihood of hail in the next 10 days, with temperatures in the fruit bowl around Hastings projected to range from the mid-high 20s to daily minimums of 12-13C, although, as Niwa climatologist Chris Brandolino says the conditions pointing to possible hail don't tend to come with much more than a few days' notice.

The pointers to an odd weather cycle came last week, when thermometers in micro-climates south of Hastings dipped marginally below zero, bringing fears of frosts, while in Napier it was as much as 10C warmer.

While unusual, specialists forecaster Metris, based in southern Wairarapa and run by former Hawke's Bay man Howard Staines, accurately forecast the Wednesday night November 18 position in detail with a 0.2C frost at Longlands, but a 3-5C range for Meeanee and Bay View.

Weatherwatch head analyst Philip Duncan says Spring rain in the North Island has been healthy for many farmers and growers so "all eyes will be on how the weather patterns settle and lie as we end the current spring pattern, probably later in December".

"As we move into an El Nino summer we may start to see some areas drying out faster than others as our mountains and ranges start to block weaker summer rain fronts," he says. Likely candidates for drier weather this summer are areas inland and towards the east, which may be bad news for farmers but good news for many holiday spots.

Scattered hail strikes in the last week of November last year caused localised damage, while a week before Christmas in 2013 significant damage was caused.