The West in general and in the liberal US in particular, the so called "Arab Spring" was greeted with great enthusiasm, indeed, the dawn of a new era where the peoples of Arab lands would rise up and take control of their destinies in a celebration of modern democracy. This came on the heels of Obama's "Cairo Speech" where Obama had insisted on at least ten members of the Muslim Brotherhood being invited to the audience.
Sweeping changes followed in Egypt, with the demise of Mubarak and the rise to the position of President of Egypt by Muhammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood in June 2012, via a democratic election that was enthusiastically received in Washington.
The Muslim Brotherhood is an extremist Islamic movement that has exported its brand of militant Islam around the world, beginning in 1928. It has expounded Jihad and the use of violence to achieve its goals. It has given rise to a multitude of sister organizations such as Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. It is inherently deeply hostile to the West.
The ruling Turkish AKP party of Erdogan has given the Muslim Brotherhood its full support and in many ways, is the parallel of that organization in Turkey.
Just as Erdogan has gradually secured a stranglehold on power in Turkey, by purging the Armed Forces, security apparatus and other government institutions and legal system, it is safe to assume that had Morsi been given more time at the helm of Egypt's government, he would have instituted a similar program of taking control, as Erdogan has done.
The Muslim Brotherhood has links with the Salafist groups in that country, including the group previously known as Ansar Bayt Al Maqdis who has since rebranded themselves the Sinai branch of the Islamic State. This group is currently waging an all-out war against the Egyptian government and military, having also brought down a Russian airliner over Sinai in October 2015.
It is not difficult to project what would have developed in Egypt under Morsi's rule. The entire country would have come under the iron grip of the Muslim Brotherhood and its Salafist allies. ISIS would have dominated the eastern bank of the Suez Canal at the very least, thus controlling its traffic.
Obama, Clinton and later Kerry all supported the results of the Egyptian election that saw Morsi's victory. They have condemned the military coup that unseated the Muslim Brotherhood and treated Abdel Fattah el Sisi who rules Egypt today, with icy disdain. The role of the US administration in influencing these events has been central.
The truth of the matter is that by way of the support given to the downfall of Mubarak and the subsequent rise of Muhammad Morsi, Obama and Clinton came within a hair's breadth of losing the Suez Canal to the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS.
These players, especially the latter, would be intent on preventing the use of the canal by many of its users today.
Not only the US Navy, but western commercial maritime traffic may well have been denied use of the canal.
With a corrupt regime in South Africa, that calls its best allies countries like North Korea, Cuba and Russia, the alternative Cape sea route is a somewhat precarious Plan B as well.
The implications of such a development would have been staggering to the Western and indeed, world economy. The consequences are too great to even fully imagine or comprehend.
The loss of the Suez Canal would have been a disaster of epic proportions. It would have been America's greatest foreign policy blunder since the days of George Washington, if not the greatest foreign policy blunder by anyone, since the days of Napoleon Bonaparte.
All that has saved Obama and Clinton (and Kerry) from this legacy is, in effect, the Egyptian military junta, the very same who are treated as diplomatic lepers by Washington until this day, on the eve of the Trump inauguration.
Gideon Afek is a commercial pilot with a background in business development and project management. He has studied towards a Masters degree in Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University and now resides in Australia.
