But life is not that simple. Politics is a fickle mistress and all it takes is one crisis to turn everything on its ear.
As far as crisis go in a small community, you don't get much bigger than the gastro outbreak which laid low more than 5000 people and claimed lives.
This could be the game changer.
The question now is whether or not the people of Havelock North (traditionally those who decide who wins the seat) hold Mr Yule responsible for the failings that could have caused the gastro outbreak.
If they do, we are in for an upset. We have seen it before - last year a largely conservative electorate in Napier propelled greenie Paul Bailey onto the Hawke's Bay Regional Council because they did not support the Ruataniwha Dam and wanted to send a strong message.
Maybe the blue-tinged village people will do the same with Ms Lorck. To give her her due, she has done her homework, is across the issues and seems to be passionate and compassionate about local matters.
Expect her to go hard on Mr Yule's handling of the crisis. She has been handed a gift and will not miss an opportunity to highlight that the gastro outbreak happened on his watch.
But don't rush to bet against Mr Yule. He may not have dabbled in national politics before but he is not wet behind the ears. This is a seasoned politician who knows how to win. He also has a charismatic style that can convince people he is their champion.
One thing is for sure, we are in for a battle royale.
It is now time for the two candidates to tell us why they should be the Member of Parliament representing us.