It is clear that the Government's decision not to move the Kura Kaupapa to Havelock North was purely a political one.
A hallmark of the John Key government has been its ability to read the mood of the nation (or in this case the community) and change tack to keepin political favour. This strategy has worked very well and may go some way to ensure that National keeps the Tukituki seat in next year's general elections.
The kura issue and the way the government seemed determined to force it on a (rightly or wrongly) unwilling Havelock North community was always going to be a hot-button issue.
The perception by some that local MP Craig Foss did not seem to know what was going on and then toed the party line above his constituents' interests began to gain some traction. Foss's adversary and Labour's nominated candidate for the seat, Anna Lorck, seized her opportunity and began to make the kura her issue.
Having been resoundly beaten by Mr Foss in the last election (albeit reducing his victory margin from the last poll) Ms Lorck needed an issue to propel her to a win. She has probably also since learned that Tukituki is won by claiming Havelock North and rural Hastings, not Flaxmere and Camberley.
The Kura gave Ms Lorck the issue she needed to campaign on, and Mr Key, a master of political opportunism, would have read the danger signs.
With Napier firmly Labour thanks to Stuart Nash's advocacy for his city, Mr Key would have realised (and internal polling would have shown him) the unthinkable was possible - Labour winning Tukituki.
The only way to reduce the chance of that happening was to make the Kura a non issue. They may have left it too late and could still get a backlash from voters holding a grudge.
