However, National is nowhere near declaring victory because the MMP system means anything can happen and a weak Labour could still find itself in government with the Greens and New Zealand First.
It is going to make for an interesting election where every seat and every vote counts.
Given Labour's popularity problems it is hardly surprising that their candidates for Napier and Tukituki are both running local campaigns.
To be fair to Napier MP Stuart Nash, he did so last election, while the Tukituki candidate Anna Lorck probably realises that her best chance of beating National's Lawrence Yule is by keeping it local and focusing on the issues that matter to people.