"Cyclone Cook is a very intense but small sized storm," a Weatherwatch spokesperson said, adding the concern meteorologists had at this stage was its merging in with a larger-sized low in the Tasman which would drag more belts of potentially heavy rain down across the North Island.
"This set up could see rain returning to flooded parts of Bay of Plenty this Wednesday then intensifying as ex-cyclone Cook passes by over Thursday and Friday with torrential rain around eastern parts of the North Island - rain heavy enough to cause even further slips and flooding as possibly more than a month's worth of rain yet again falls in just a couple of days."
Mr McDavitt said he saw three reasons for Cyclone Cook to potentially echo the Bola events.
"A close analysis of Bola showed it made two loops around Vanuatu making a slow-moving feature.
"Cook is a slow-moving environment when over Vanuatu so it may also do some loops," Mr McDavitt said.
He said Bola's path off the southeast was blocked by a large high to the east of the country "so that it was knocked slowly to south and southwest near northern New Zealand".
Cyclone Cook "may" also be blocked by a high, Mr McDavitt said.
"And Bola had a tropical depression accomplice to its east that went south over the Nuie area as it came south.
"This helped form converging rivers of moist air that hit the Gisborne hills in 1988 _ Cook has a similar accomplice and the converging rivers of moist air, according to today's data, may be in eastern Bay of Plenty on Friday."
Mr McDavitt did however add a rider to his possible forecast.
"Mind you, there is still plenty of time for this scenario to change, but it's worth watching."
Tomorrow and Thursday's forecast for Hawke's Bay is for northeasterlies and periods of rain while Friday should see a change to southerlies with rain.
At this stage the weekend forecast was still slightly up in the air although the situation was expected to improve with clearing skies and a return of the sunshine.
"As for the four day Easter Weekend it doesn't look stormy so much as it looks unsettled for many regions," the weatherwatch spokesperson said.
"In other words a changeable forecast from day to day with a risk of some wet weather amongst the sunny spells."
In the wake of last week's slips and surface flooding roading contractors would be on alert.
Mr Oldfield said the slip clearance work around the Te Pohue region was likely to be wrapped up by this morning and the 30km/h temporary limits removed.