Federated Farmers believes the fate of the Ruataniwha dam will be a "close call" dependent on how many farmers sign up to take water from the proposed irrigation scheme.
Hawke's Bay Regional Council has agreed to invest up to $80 million in the Central Hawke's Bay project, but only if a number of conditions are met, including farmers committing to take a set minimum volume of water before construction starts.
The council's commercial arm, Hawke's Bay Regional Investment Company (HBRIC), is currently working on convincing farmers to sign water user agreements in its bid to sell the 40 million cubic metres per year of water needed to give the scheme the green light.
The company said last month it had about 35 million cubic metres of water "in the contracting pipeline" with other potential users it would talk to once those deals were signed.
Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay provincial president Will Foley said yesterday while he was confident a "reasonable number" of water users were committed to the scheme, it was not yet a certainty the required 40 million cubic metre target would be met.
The organisation, along with Irrigation New Zealand, have organised a meeting in Waipawa tonight aimed at giving more information on the feasibility of irrigation to farmers who remained undecided.
Speakers at the meeting will include farmers and growers using irrigation scheme water in other parts of New Zealand.
"We want to make sure that all the farmers have got enough information and support in their decision-making that they can confidently say yes or no," Mr Foley said.
"Really, it's how many of these farmers sitting on the fence needing help with their decision-making are out there that can be supported enough to make the decision to go ahead. It's going to be quite a close call."
Other conditions that need to be met before the Ruataniwha scheme goes ahead include it securing "workable" resource consents which are the subject to a High Court review being heard in Wellington next week.
HBRIC must also secure the remaining funding for the $275 million project and finalise a construction contract.
Mr Foley said it appeared the consent issue would be worked through, funding would be found provided irrigators signed up and HBRIC was close to finalising a deal on construction. That meant overcoming the prospect of insufficient farmer uptake appeared to be the major hurdle the scheme faced, he said.
A request for economist Peter Fraser, who has written a paper questioning the value of the Ruataniwha dam, to speak at tonight's meeting was turned down last week.
Irrigation NZ chief executive Andrew Curtis said the event was intended to allow farmers to hear the "personal experience" of other farmers who had used irrigation whereas Mr Fraser was "talking about theory, not real-life farming".
?Tonight's meeting is at the Waipawa Municipal Theatre, starting at 7pm.
Dam decision depends on water users
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