Craig Cooper: Why Hawke's Bay will turn orange next week. And yahoo, we hit 90%. Or did we?

According to the Ministry of Health, Hawke's Bay hit the 90 per cent single vaccine target a few days ago. Photo / NZME

It's a little confusing, knowing when to light the fireworks to celebrate Hawke's Bay hitting the 90 per cent single vaccination rate.

According to the Ministry of Health, we hit the target a few days ago.

If you are following Hawke's Bay DHB data, at 89.9 per cent, we're not there yet.

You'd think both would sing from the same Covid song sheet.

But they don't - each uses different data to assess goals and progress, and each also has different approaches to analysis and percentage calculations.

The MoH uses Census data and has calculated an eligible vaccination population of 145,571.

That's 485 less than the DHB's eligible population, which sets itself a tougher goal based on Health Service User (HSU) data.

The DHB also has a stauncher approach to percentages.

Having ostracised anti-vaxxers, will they end up living together in communities with their own restaurants and cafes? Photo / NZME

Until Friday afternoon, the DHB has been reporting an 89.6 per cent single vaccination rate.

And encouraging us to keep going - we're not quite there yet.

The MoH though, rounds its percentages up.

Therefore, 89.7 per cent becomes 90 per cent.

If you round up, aren't you cheating yourself.

On Friday, the MoH table reported that 90 per cent of 145,571 is 130,611.

My School Certificate maths knowledge applied to my calculator says 90 per cent of 145,571 is actually 131,014.

That's a difference of 403 people.

In the wider scheme of things, you'd lean toward the DHB data as being more robust and definitive, and safer. The DHB isn't happy with ignoring 400 people.

But in a climate where "I'm over it" T-shirts are selling like hotcakes on a winter's day, we'll take whatever makes life easier for us, thanks.

So, given the MoH says we have hit 90 per cent, we should expect to go orange next week when the new traffic light level system begins.

Especially when the DHB data clicked over to 89.9 per cent on Friday afternoon.

As well as raising questions around why are there two sets of vax data circulating, there are many unanswered questions still, around how the new colour system will work.

Having turned our non-vaccinated friends into modern day lepers, do we confine them to 'non-vax' cafes and restaurants, schools or communes even?

Will non-vax families and vax-families let their kids play together?

Can non-vax staff serve non-vax customers if they all agree to congregate together?

Perhaps one thing we can all agree on is that when it comes to leadership, we should be thankful that red got the green light at the general election and not blue.

Although if for some bizarre reason, Hawke's Bay goes from level 2 to the more constraining 'red' next week, it will swing a red voter or three back to blue at the next general election.

Even if the National Party still thinks the definition of 'leader' is someone who vacates the position every 6 months to give someone else a go.

Expect Hawke's Bay to go orange next week.