Craig Cooper: Weekend vax slowdown just a stall at the lights?

Hawke's Bay's Super Saturday surge saw 3032 people get their first vax and 5838 their second. Photo / Ian Cooper

Hawke's Bay relaxed over the four-day long weekend in more ways than one.

Our Covid daily vaccination rates were running at an average of about 226 a day. That's down on the week leading into the holiday weekend.

On October 21 the single vax total was 119,577 - on October 26 it was 120,705 - a rise of 1,128 over five days.

131,014 is the magic number that will give us a 90 per cent 'doubled-vaxed' rate of our eligible population of 145,571.

That's another 10,309 people to hit 90 per cent single-vaxed.

Based on the above, at 226 people a day, we'd hit the 90 per cent target on December 11.

Let's assume that everyone who gets one vax will get two.

With a two-week stand-down between vaccinations, we could be double-vaxed by Christmas Day.

There are many variables to that 'guesstimate', though.

Before the holiday weekend, from October 17 to October 21, daily rates peaked at 367, with a daily average of 250.

We'd hit the target earlier at that rate. We've also had the surge of Super Saturday.

Before (October 15) and after (October 17) Super Saturday comparisons show that 3,032 people got their first jab and 5,838 their second. We'd rather it was the other way round.

Hawke's Bay has an added incentive to hit 90 per cent - it's the carrot being dangled

The Fairy God nurse Valerie Harris blesses Lovey Gillies of Napier at the Pak'n Save vaccination clinic on Super Saturday. Photo / Ian Cooper

before we can enter a new 'traffic light' restriction regime.

Conversely, vaccination mandate rules can't be introduced until regions operate under the traffic light system.

The three new levels - red, orange and green - are only accessible to regions that have hit a double vax rate of 90 per cent.

Each level - just like the old system of levels one to four - has varying levels of proactive restrictions.

However, you get dispensation if you have a vaccination certificate and rules around public gatherings etc can be relaxed if they are restricted to certificate holders.

Across all three levels, contract tracing is mandatory and face masks remain part of our lives.

The vaccination certificates aren't available until late November, but you can start the process by going to app.covid19.health.nz/

https://app.covid19.health.nz/

Once you set up an account, you can view confirmation of your vaccinations, and in late November you will be able to request your certificate.

A 90 per cent double-vaxed rate will move Hawke's Bay to the orange level of the traffic light system.

Orange reflects a scenario where there is increasing Covid transmission but the health system is coping.

Let's hope that the long weekend slowdown is a reflection of the region taking a breather, a stall at the lights.

Because the new traffic lights system reflects levels of freedom and economic activity that could not be contemplated without the vaccine.

Hawke's Bay is famous for growing apples - but it will be sweet to taste the success of 'going orange'.