New Zealand Business Hall of Famer Mavis Mullins says the region's biggest challenge, post Covid 19, as industries continue to grow, is having skilled labour.
New Zealand Business Hall of Famer Mavis Mullins says the region's biggest challenge, post Covid 19, as industries continue to grow, is having skilled labour.
Hawke's Bay is dramatically bucking national and regional economy trends, according to the latest Westpac McDermott Miller quarterly survey.
The quarterly report on the Regional Economic Confidence, based on a survey from June 1-10, shows that despite the Covid-19 crisis and an uncertain future a net 19 per centof Hawke's Bay and Gisborne households expect the regional economy to prosper over the next 12 months.
Up from a net 5 per cent in the last report in March, it compares with 3 per cent in both Waikato and Bay of Plenty, the only other regions showing any positivity among the areas on which the survey focuses throughout the country.
The rest of New Zealand has spiralled into pessimism, most severely in Auckland, tracking at minus 22 per cent.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said spirits in Hawke's Bay and Gisborne are likely to have been buoyed by the recent good grape harvest, and harvest and price gains in the apple industry.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens at a business breakfast in Napier last year. Photo / File
The survey outcome doesn't surprise to leading businesswoman Mavis Mullins, of Dannevirke, who highlights Hawke's Bay's role in providing some of the necessities of life.
"One of the things to come out of the Covid crisis is the need for reliability in food production and supply," she said.
"Hawke's Bay was once known as the Fruit Bowl of New Zealand. Well perhaps that should now be the Food Bowl."
"When we look at Hawke's Bay's profile we tick every box, and even with tourism, while it has a large footprint in the region, it is there largely because of the food and wine industries. Almost all of those tourism options are in some way based around that."
Inducted to the New Zealand Business Hall of Fame in 2017 and having served in numerous boardrooms and industry and groups, she said the biggest challenge, as the industries continue to grow, is having skilled labour, adding: "We want to learn from those (Covid crisis) lessons and be thoughtful about the future.
The 19 per cent in the eastern North Island regions is almost four times greater than the 5 per cent in the next-most-recent report three months ago, based on a survey as the country dealt with the first Covid-19 alert restrictions ahead of the nationwide lockdown (self-isolation) from 11.59pm on March 25.
A year ago it was 26 per cent, having dropped dramatically from the 52 per cent six months earlier at the end of 2018.
Stephens expects the recent lift to be "temporary given the coming global recession and its likely impact returns and house prices in the region."
The latest report says the decline in confidence nationally "reflects disruptions to economic activity caused by Covid-19 with the biggest falls occurring in regions more acutely affected by the recent lockdown."
"That includes Otago, which has been heavily impacted by a ban on foreign tourists, as well as Auckland, Canterbury and Wellington, where more activities were deemed non-essential."
"By contrast, regions that produce essential items like food were less affected by the lockdown and have remained more confident," it says, citing the dairy industry in Waikato and kiwifruit in Bay of Plenty.
Business Hawke's Bay CEO Carolyn Neville said the region had been enjoying an extended period of economic growth before the lockdown.
"This season's harvest was a record one for many crops, with businesses successfully adapting to the challenges of lockdown to harvest and process their crops," she said.
"The economy was buoyant off the back the strong primary sector, an innovative business community, strong consumer confidence, increasing house prices and a growing population reflecting Hawke's Bay's attractiveness.
"Jobseeker numbers are significantly up and business owners have had to make tough and heartbreaking decisions that have impacted on families across the region," she said.
"While the results of the survey are encouraging, it was taken at a time when restrictions had been relaxed and may reflect pent up local demand coming out of lockdown," she said.
"We expect that the next 12 -18 months will be very tough. Hawke's Bay has the opportunity through innovation to create higher value jobs, particularly in the food growing, food production and agritech sectors. Vocational training and upskilling in other areas is a further opportunity for Hawke's Bay to adapt and respond to the challenges of current economic crisis."
