To illustrate the size of the impact, Fonterra's share of traded global dairy products has dropped from 42 per cent in 2007 to 26 per cent now, despite a 26 per cent rise in local production in the past five years.
It's an udder fantasy to think such a glut would not suck the life from market prices. Yet evidently that's what Fonterra believed, because until today they've projected a farm-gate payout of around $5.50 per kilogram of milksolids this year, when it may be lower than $3.50.
Considering the estimated break-even return needed by the "average" farmer is about $5.70, that bellowing you hear echoing through the hills is not the bulls in rut, it's the cockies in despair.
Especially those who relied on the "experts" to borrow heavily to expand on the back of 2013's record prices of $8.40/kg. Instead of wearing cheesy grins, they're heading for penury, even with interest rates at 60-year lows.
Conspiracy theorists reckon it's a Chinese plot to buy our farms cheap - and certainly some may take advantage.
But at base it's outrageously short-sighted management in an industry seemingly blinded by greed. In light of which, try justifying CEO Theo Spierings' $4.18 million salary.
At the same time, Fonterra's talked-up environmental credentials are proving as problematic as the methane from a cow's backside.
It copped a $174,150 fine this week for waste discharges polluting waterways at its Edgecumbe plant, with the judge expressing shock the company was not using equipment such as cut-off devices.
"Fonterra should be an industry leader, not a laggard, in regard to the adoption of appropriate technology to avoid environmental effects," Judge Jeff Smith said.
He also highlighted Fonterra had failed to invest in environmental technology when prices were at their height - something I urged for dairying in general at that time.
Instead, farms expanded and the company pimped-up its Clean Streams Accord as a success (when in fact the data showed it had failed) and has continued to excuse not supporting regulation to redress "dirty dairy" practices.
That many individual farmers have taken responsibility for cleaning up their farms is a credit to them, but the industry as a whole continues to fail to act against those who treat the environment as a chemical and faecal dump, like the Waikato farmers caught deliberately discharging raw manure into streams last year.
These failures and double standards must be put right.
Regulation is no burden for those who follow best practice; those who don't deserve every penalty they are due.
As things stand, there's no mileage in signing the TPPA for dairy's sake.
Bruce Bisset is a freelance writer and poet.
