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Home / Hawkes Bay Today

Bruce Bisset: Doomsday closer than you think

By BRUCE BISSET - LEFT HOOK
Hawkes Bay Today·
22 Jun, 2012 01:49 AM4 mins to read

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Seems to me unless we act urgently to curb our rapacious consumption of the world's finite resources, we - and I'm talking to you, fellow Boomers - are setting ourselves up to die hard, humiliating, and pain-filled deaths.

Because a large percentage of the minerals that construct our technology are due to run out within the next 30 or so years. And that's at current trending rates of consumption - never mind economic or population surges.

I'm not sure what part of that people fail to understand, or why; but if you're a 50- or even early-60-something then given average life expectancy these days it's not (only) going to be the next generation's problem - it'll be yours.

So you can stop fobbing it off on to the kids (as if that excuses you) and start getting real. You want all the marvels of modern medicine to sustain you in your dotage? Sorry. You're 20 years too young.

See, although the facts are plain and have been for a long time, and although most people pretend lip service to the problem of resource depletion, very few seem to properly grasp the actuality of what that may mean for them - let alone their children.

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In basic terms, it means that when - not if, but when - the Earth gives up the last of its non-replaceable treasures, the current Golden Age we have all grown fat and stupid within will collapse into placid pastoralism at best.

Within as little as 30 years. Yes, within your lifetime.

There are no magic wands that can be waved, because (with the deplorably notable exception of money, which we cannot eat) we cannot make something from nothing. Once a resource has been used up, that's it, folks. And they're being used up fast.

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Here's just a taster of a list (courtesy various official sources) giving a material, some common uses, a medical use, and the number of years - at currently economic extraction of all known reserves - left before supply runs out:

Antimony: used in batteries and as a fire retardant; in emetic drugs; eight years' supply.

Indium: LCDs and touchscreens, solar panels; radio-trace diagnostics; 12 years.

Silver: conductors, electrical contacts; topical gels and hearing aids; 17 years.

Copper: brass, wires, piping; arthritis treatments; 32 years.

Titanium: aircraft, armour, pigments; artificial joints; 44 years.

Tantalum: mobile phones; hip replacements; 46 years.

Then there are the famous fossil fuels, which still largely power our world. Even with the latest extraction techniques, known reserves are estimated to run out in 35 years for gas, 37 for oil, and 42 for coal.

While depletion of these is mainly driven by over-consumption, it's worth noting one population-driven resource - agricultural land suitable for rain-fed cultivation - will be entirely utilised within 69 years.

Even allowing new mineral reserves may be discovered and new methods may make extraction of other sources economically feasible, as you can appreciate, the clock is not just ticking but starting to ring loud.

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Are we listening? On the evidence of the non-event that is the Rio+20 negotiated declaration, no.

The global environment conference's core document waffles on about the risk and need to act but sets no new targets or timeframes or any real mechanisms of enforcement for any given solution to address humanity's multitudinous crises.

Leaders will fly into Rio, sign the papers, say a few meaningless soundbites and fly out again, essentially ignoring the parlous state of the world.

As will we.

For instead of demonstrating on the streets, we are too busy mindlessly shopping, buying the latest geegaw and must-have model without a moment's reflection.

The young, whom we have trained up all too well to consume in lust, at least have that partial excuse, even if (having grown up during this debate) they should know better.

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We older generations have none, except flat-out denial and laziness.

Which we are going to pay for, in spades, in the remarkably near future.

It's also estimated that by 2050, as a result of climate change, one-third of all plant and animal species on land will be extinct.

Unless we recover from our mass insanity and take a drastic turn towards sustainability, humans may well be numbered among the deceased. Or soon thereafter.

For survival's sake, at least think before you buy.

That's the right of it.

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