Who might follow Hipkins, Luxon?

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

“It’s the question a political leader will almost never answer publicly but which is nonetheless quietly discussed inside and outside of the leader’s party: what will you do if you lose?”

So started twin comment pieces this week by NZ Herald senior political correspondent Audrey Young, looking at who would take over the leadership of Labour or National after an election defeat. Young made the case that both Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon would step down after a loss.

Hipkins would probably have to go quickly, she wrote. If it was a catastrophic loss he could not remain even as an interim measure; if it was close, many in the party “would take the view that were it not for his decision to rule out a wealth tax, the party would have won”.

There were two sound choices for an interim leader in current deputy prime minister Carmel Sepuloni and — “in a blood-letting crisis” — Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

But a new-generation leadership team would be needed before long, preferably with ministerial experience, and Young felt the best available combination would be Kieran McAnulty as leader and Ayesha Verrall as deputy leader.

“McAnulty has been a strong performer since first being appointed a minister in June last year. He was first elected in 2017 as a list MP and is now the Wairarapa MP and No.16 on the party list. Having Verrall, the Health Minister, as his No.2 would create a gender balance which is considered essential in a Labour leadership team . . . . Verrall, an infectious diseases specialist, was first elected in 2020 as a list-only candidate and is ranked at No.7 on the Labour list. She was put straight into the Cabinet and took over the health portfolio in January.”

With regard to National, Young said it was possible, even likely, that Luxon would step down after a loss as an accountability measure, rather than be pushed. His Wellington-based deputy Nicola Willis was the obvious successor.

“With her high profile, she has emerged more as a co-leader to Luxon than a deputy. It would be a surprise if she had any serious competition for a leadership vacancy following the election.”

And the best option for her deputy?

National aims to have a balance in its leadership combo between either liberal and conservative elements of the party, and/or urban and rural.

That would probably rule out fellow liberals Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford. Simeon Brown would be a possibility, “but only because there was no one else”.

“Willis’ most capable and proven deputy would actually be Christopher Luxon. He could also become finance spokesman and eventually Minister of Finance in a Willis-led government.”