What coalition talks might produce . . .

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

While Winston Peters wants us to “avoid speculation” before the final vote count in two weeks, and it is hard to know exactly which policies each party will prioritise in coalition/support negotiations, it is worth recapping some of an NZ Herald article last week on what a National-Act-NZ First government might look like.

It suggested there was enough common ground — for example, all three want a more punitive approach to criminal justice, and for beneficiaries who aren’t meeting their work-ready obligations.

Regarding co-governance, they agree on disbanding the Māori Health Authority, repealing Three Waters reforms, and abolishing laws allowing councils to set up Māori wards. They all want a needs-based system rather than government services being provided on ethnic grounds; noting that National leader Christopher Luxon wants to increase support for “by Māori, for Māori” programmes, delivered under one public service.

All three parties agree on reducing the regulatory burden on farmers, and allowing for more and easier water storage. They also want to roll back Labour’s scrapping of the RMA, and will likely agree to a greater emphasis on private property rights.

Act and NZ First could push National on climate change. Neither want agricultural emissions to be priced unless this is adopted by trading partners, which might not be an issue for a first-term National Government as it wants a pricing system for on-farm emissions “by 2030 at the latest”.

All three want a four-lane highway from Whangārei to Port Marsden, and are likely to find agreement on prioritising regional infrastructure; they just have different approaches to funding mechanisms.

Peters may refuse to budge on 65 being the age of eligibility for superannuation, although the fact National policy is for this to gradually rise to 67 from 2044 might make it OK.

The crux will be National’s tax package, which Peters and Act’s David Seymour have concerns over. Peters could nix National’s proposed foreign buyers’ tax on homes worth over $2m. Act and NZ First support reinstating interest tax deductibility for landlords, like National. Both have plans to reduce income tax, but want to delay them until finances are in better shape.

If there is a revenue shortfall for tax cuts, this could be made up by cuts to the public service that go beyond what National has planned for, putting more downward pressure on inflation.

Act wants the public service reduced to 2017 levels, entailing 15,000 fewer jobs. NZ First’s manifesto says it wants zero central government spending on light rail or cycle lanes while there are still potholes, as well as a “root and branch review of every spending line”.

If National gets its full tax cuts, costed at $14.6bn over four years, there might not be much in the kitty for pricier items on Peters’ wish list.

National has budgeted for $9.9bn in unallocated operating spending over four years, which could be used to appease governing partners.