So where is El Nino? Judging from the behaviour of the region’s weather, it’s more like El Nono, and contrary to all the dire forecasts that began months ago.
Examining data of the past few months, and the current weather, there is still no indication of an impending drought for Gisborne-East Cape.
It is rainy all this week, and soil moisture measurements show the Gisborne-Wairoa area is still some 40 millimetres wetter than usual.
The East Cape area was drying out quite quickly. Compared to the southern half of the region it was actually 20 to 30mm drier than usual — until this latest rain.
So asking about El Nino is a bit like kids on a long car journey — “Are we there yet?” (repeated every few minutes!)
The usual pattern for an El Nino is to bring more drying westerlies for this district, but cooler than usual summer temperatures. Perhaps it’s running late.
So far it has been warmer than usual, with this month warming up after a slow start to be bang on the average daily maximum.
But with the rain and cloud, and humidity from the islands, the nights have been much warmer — over 12 degrees, or about 1.2 degrees warmer than usual.
Overall, the month’s average daily temperature is running at 16 degrees, or a shade warmer than the 30-year November average of 15.7.
The cloudy conditions have cut the amount of sunshine — and with two-thirds of the month gone, Gisborne has had 116 hours of sun compared to the latest November average of 228 hours.
That means we are averaging about six hours of sun a day, instead of over seven and a half.
One firm sign of El Nino and the approach of summer is warmer sea temperatures.
For the past few weeks the water has been a bit chillier than usual for the time of year.
However, since last week, the bay’s water temperature has risen from 15.2 degrees to 16 degrees — and at that rate of rise, should soon be at the average for the time of year of 16.3 degrees.
Meantime, the prognosis of a strong El Nino and drought for this region remains to be confirmed — climate pattern or not, the weather isn’t playing ball!
Roger Handford
