Voters have their say with a few surprises

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

The expected blue tide rolled in a little higher than the polls had suggested on Saturday night, but not quite enough to give Prime Minister elect Christopher Luxon the clear majority he badly wanted.

Preliminary results out on Sunday saw Luxon and the Act Party holding a total of 61 seats — a narrow majority that complicates coalition talks. Luxon has said he will talk to New Zealand First’s Winston Peters and will keep the negotiations behind closed doors.

The big uncertainty is that 567,000 votes remain to be counted, enough to affect the final outcome. In the past these have favoured the left; whether that happens again is unknown and will remain so until November 3.

For the embattled Labour government the result was a disaster — some 31 MPs have lost their seats and the party faces a major reset. Whether Chris Hipkins will continue to lead the party is unknown but there is no one putting their hand up just yet.

The 2020 result was a freak one to some extent, with Jacinda Ardern being rewarded for the party’s response to the Covid pandemic and National frankly in a shambles.

Like all elections there were some surprises this time.

One was the rise of Te Pāti Māori which now holds four of the seven Māori seats, with Labour “institution” Nanaia Mahuta beaten by Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, 21 — the youngest MP for 170 years.

However, in the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate Labour’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel has defeated former Labour cabinet minister Meka Whaitiri, who defected to Te Pāti Māori this year.

A clear win in East Coast for former Gisborne Herald reporter Dana Kirkpatrick over Tāmati Coffey means the district will continue to have two women MPs.

The Greens also had something to celebrate, holding their share of the party vote, retaining Auckland Central and capturing the Labour strongholds of Wellington Central and Rongotai. This may be remembered by future historians as a great election for the “minor parties”, a term which might need to be retired.

There are a number of electorate seats that are too close to call.

Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis is only 476 votes ahead in preliminary results and Peeni Henare also has a narrow margin of 471 votes.

In Mt Albert, the seat held by former prime ministers Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern, Labour candidate Helen White is just 106 votes ahead.

For Christopher Luxon it is really down to work as he moves to forge a government with the ability to make the major changes he and National have promised. Watching his progress is going to keep both political pundits and the general public on the edge of their seats over coming weeks.