Sub-tropical forays keep winter at bay

WARMER THAN USUAL: With the sub-tropics still making several warm, moist forays, General Winter’s chilly grasp was kept at bay, writes Roger Handford. File picture

April’s weather was a battle between north and south, but ended near enough to a draw with no outright winner.

There were 13 days of wind from the northern sector, while the south launched a matching 13 days of weather.

Four days of easterlies accounted for the middle ground.

With the sub-tropics still making several warm, moist forays, General Winter’s chilly grasp was kept at bay.

The mean daily maximum temperature for April was around 20.8 degrees — half a degree warmer than the 1991-2020 30-year average.

With persistent cloud cover acting as a thermal blanket, nights were warmer than usual, with the mean daily minimum two degrees above the 1991-2020 average of 10.2.

This mean April’s mean monthly temperature was 16.5 degrees — a whole degree warmer than usual.

Both MetService and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) expect similar weather to continue in the near future.

Meanwhile, climate agencies around the world are keeping a close watch on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation pattern.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Niño watch, and says all computer models are in agreement that an El Nino will develop in the next six months.

NOAA says there’s a 62 percent chance El Niño will develop during May to July, and a more than 80 percent chance it will develop in the period after that.

Closer in time, the MetService says temperatures are well above average for the beginning of May and predicts overnight temperatures will stay high across the North Island.

Extended weather models indicate another serious dose of rain could be in the offing by the end of next week.