So much in politics is about timing

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

For those of us unashamedly hooked on politics, the daily fix actually has little to do with incumbent government policies that affect us all. It identifies more with the alternative front-runners who could replace the current leaders doing the deals committing us to strategic alliances that, in time, we may regret.

These observations should not be limited to current political manoeuvring here in New Zealand, although Chris Hipkins' ascendency to the premiership with his tactical genius for turning the contest on its head does provide interest on its own.

The real “games” are being played on the world stage where we are but a bit player.

In that context, it is fascinating to watch those who have yet to and those who already have announced they will seek their party's nomination for President of the United States at the next presidential election in 2024.

While the Democrat nomination is pretty much dependent on whether Joe Biden is forcibly denied a chance to run for a second term, the Republican nomination is likely to be contested by many senior members of the Trump administration, including the former President himself.

Given the rock solid support “the Donald” still enjoys from the conservative base — which would normally suggest that the nomination is his for the taking — it is not beyond the realms of possibility that an alternative front-runner may emerge from the pack in the primaries.

We have yet to see which of the alternatives offers policies that will most likely appeal to the general public during the campaign proper.

However, we now have a strategic positioning in the form of a public announcement from one potential candidate that could change the race as well as US popular sentiment on the biggest foreign policy issue of the day.

Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, has just come out declaring himself opposed to the current administration's total “as long as it takes” support of Ukraine in its battle with Russia — support that is strongly backed by many in his own party as well.

This move is a “game changer” because of its potential to force all American politicians to re-examine the degree of US commitment to the war in Ukraine.

DeSantis has been reflecting on the need to rein in US spending both at home and abroad, which has reached unsustainable levels that will only help China achieve the “world dominance” position it seeks.

He sees many vital national interests that need attention, and says “becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them”.

My belief is that, as an astute observer of the public mood, DeSantis will soon overtake Trump as the front-runner for the Republican nomination — especially given that the American people are already suffering from the results of reckless spending by the Biden administration that seems to have no end.

It isn't hard to imagine which policy mix would appeal most to those who are worse off than they have ever been.

When it comes to survival, you must expect the bulk of the populace to react selfishly and that is what l predict will happen here.

I reckon that the US commitment to Ukraine, at least in its current form, is on borrowed time.

In my opinion, the responsibility for Ukraine's survival should rest more with the European members of Nato, rather than the US having to do most of the heavy-lifting militarily.