“Following the subsequent September 19 anomaly, we’ve been laser-focused this quarter on the return to service of Electron (rocket),” Mr Beck said.
“The cause of the anomaly is a highly complex set of conditions that are extremely difficult to replicate in testing.
“However, we believe the findings of the Rocket Lab investigation team overwhelmingly indicate that an electrical arc occurred within the power supply system that provides high voltage to the Rutherford engine’s motor controllers, shorting the battery packs which provide power to the launch vehicle’s upper stage.
“With growing confidence in our determination of the anomaly’s probable root cause and corrective measures in place, we expect to formally close our investigation in the coming weeks.
“Electron’s return to flight is scheduled during a launch window that opens from November 28 and extends into December.
“Exhaustive testing and analysis to recreate this failure mode has led to the investigation team’s determination that the arc was likely only made possible by the rare interaction of multiple conditions.
“Any one of these factors on their own would likely not have caused the failure of the second stage, but when they occur simultaneously in the low-pressure environment of space, they reach the threshold dictated by Paschen’s Law for an arc to form and travel.
“Paschen’s Law is an equation that breaks down the relationship between voltage, pressure environment, distance between electrodes and presence of gas necessary for an electrical arc to form and travel.
“This highly complex set of conditions is extremely difficult to predict and test for on Earth, even in simulated space conditions.
“To ensure the fault does not present again, Rocket Lab is implementing two key corrective measures — one designed to improve testing on the ground and another to eliminate the possibility of comparable arcs occurring in flight should similar faults evade the new enhanced testing process.
“As an additional redundancy feature, Rocket Lab has modified Electron’s battery frame section which houses the high-voltage power supply system to enable it to maintain optimum gaseous pressure from launch through to stage separation from Electron’s Kick Stage.
“Pressurising this section significantly reduces the ability for arcs to form.”
The results came from analysis of just 1.6 seconds of anomaly data.
The company has a launch backlog worth $424m and is planning for two launches anticipated to bring in revenue of $28m for the final quarter of this year.
“The majority of launches in 2024 are scheduled from LC-1 in Māhia but we are not sharing the exact breakdown at this time as it is always subject to change,” Rocket Lab senior communications director Morgan Bailey said.