‘Risky gamble’ as restrictions eased

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

Circumstance seems to have forced the Government into a risky gamble with the latest decision on alert levels that has seen Auckland finally given some respite and a small part of Waikato placed in Level 4.

After a wearying 34 days in lockdown Auckland will finally see a drop down to Level 3 tonight which will allow for a small step towards normality. The small settlement of Mangatangi was less lucky, going into a bespoke Level 4 for two weeks after a Covid-infected prisoner released on bail travelled into the community.

It led to a testing blitz in the small community, with half the residents being tested yesterday, and there are questions on how the prisoner was allowed bail and on what terms.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the country was not stepping out of lockdown because the job was done but because Level 3 still provided a cautious approach.

Her announcement is seen as something of a pressure release, coming as it does despite the fact that 22 new cases were recorded.

It places further doubts on the Government's elimination strategy which requires the country's vaccination levels to get to something like 80 or even 90 percent before restrictions can be really lifted.

On that score, Ardern said that 80 percent of Aucklanders had had their first dose of the vaccine by yesterday and she hoped the figure would reach 90 percent by the end of the two-week period.

The decision has been far from welcomed by the experts.

Modeller Professor Shaun Hendry said there was a real risk that cases could grow under Level 3.

It was a calculated risk because Level 3 restrictions were similar to what was seen in Victoria and New South Wales and they had failed to contain the outbreak.

Epidemiologist Michael Baker said getting to zero cases would be key if New Zealand wanted to avoid a long period of limbo with heavy suppression measures, as Sydney and Melbourne were facing.

“The problem now is that our vaccine coverage isn't high enough to protect the vulnerable people. It means if we don't stamp out the virus in Auckland we are going to be in a suppression state until Christmas,” he said.

A slightly humorous note came yesterday when two gang members were stopped trying to sneak into Auckland from Hamilton with a boot full of KFC and $100,000. Yes, it's a laugh, but it shows how difficult it can be to isolate our biggest city.