Peters is back at the centre of NZ politics

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

The final election result has finally been revealed and Winston Peters is back at the centre of politics, with NZ First’s eight seats needed along with Act’s 11 for National to be able to form the next government.

Special votes have once again tallied against National, which has lost two seats from its election night party-vote result to have 48 MPs at the start of the next Parliament, set to rise to 49 after the Port Waikato byelection later this month. Two electorates where its candidates held a slim majority have gone Labour’s way, in Nelson and Te Atatū. Veteran MP Gerry Brownlee, a likely Speaker for the next Parliament, sneaks in on National’s party list.

The big mover from special votes is Te Pāti Māori, taking two more seats off Labour to win six of the seven Māori electorates and create a two-seat overhang in the next Parliament, because its 3 percent party-vote share would be four seats.

Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis has lost Te Tai Toikerau by 517 votes to Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and could now retire from politics, having said prior to the election he would if he didn’t win the seat. Takutai Tarsh Kemp is just four votes ahead of Peeni Henare in Tāmaki Makaurau, so there will certainly be a recount.

Labour stays on 34 seats while the Green Party has increased one from election night, to 15 seats.

The big question of the past three weeks, though, was whether Peters and NZ First would be needed to form a government and that has now been answered in the affirmative.

NZ Herald senior political correspondent Audrey Young made the point yesterday that if Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon needed Peters, he would be better to have a coalition with both NZ First and Act in Cabinet, or both parties supporting from outside Cabinet (while still holding ministerial positions). Having just one party in Cabinet with its leader potentially as deputy PM would be “problematic” for the other party.

“Both leaders are professional but they are at heart combative,” she wrote. “The fact is while NZ First and Act are chalk and cheese on economic nationalism, they are in the same political marketplace on many issues and the new arrangement of government should constrain their rivalry, not encourage it.”

Young said having both parties in Cabinet would likely mean they act more cohesively and take a more consensus approach to decision-making, and that would be attractive to Luxon. His repeated insistence that they will form a strong and stable government also indicates this is the most likely outcome.

The big question now is what policy wins Act and NZ First get in their respective negotiations.