Parties courting undecided voters

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

As the second full week of the election campaign gathers pace, one big question that is emerging is where an unusually high undecided vote will end up — and the slight possibility that the country will end with something of a hung Parliament.

On the face of it, recent polls have delivered numbers where the right-wing bloc would be able to form a government — possibly needing the support of NZ First — but the size of the undecided proportion of electors, which has been estimated to be as much as 25 percent, is a complication.

Labour obviously needs to take the majority of that figure, stuck as it is in the high 20s in recent polling, but it appears that neither of the two major parties are making inroads into it at the moment.

National leader Christopher Luxon wielded a sword at a pirate festival on Saturday but he is yet to convince even all National Party voters that he is the man to be our next Prime Minister.

Likewise, Labour leader Chris Hipkins does not seem to be able to attract a strong personal vote.

This and a relatively low combined vote for National and Labour leaves their minor-party allies more and more likely to have a strong say in how the country is run after the October 14 election.

Act leader David Seymour threw a spanner in the works at the weekend saying that while his preference is for a strong coalition agreement with National, he is floating the idea of a confidence-only deal — something not seen in this country before.

It is a shrewd move. Anticipating being in government, Seymour wants to have as strong a hand as possible in how money is spent. Preventing spending waste is a hallmark of Act’s campaign platform.

Sitting in a confidence-only role would in theory give him a much bigger say in that aspect of government.

While it may well only be a bluff, it has been seen by some commentators as a sign that the relationship between the two right-wing parties could become strained.

As well as the high undecided vote there is the issue of New Zealand First, which in some polls is now sitting above the 5 percent level needed to get seats in Parliament.

Winston Peters has a knack for attracting publicity with things like his weekend statement that Māori are not indigenous to New Zealand, having only been here for 800 or 900 years.

Unfortunately there is an audience for this kind of barb which could lead to the Opposition being spread across four parties for the first time in the MMP era.

It is all speculation at the moment but it is making the election more and more interesting.