‘Normal’ cyclone season ahead say forecasters

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Good news on the tropical cyclone front — the latest outlook is for a normal cyclone season.

The agencies responsible for analysing cyclone potential in the Pacific have just issued an updated outlook for the season ahead.

The August 2023 long-range tropical cyclone outlook for the south-west Pacific suggests near-normal activity for the coming season, from November 1, 2023 to April 30, 2024.

The analysis says in total, nine tropical cyclones are expected for the south-west Pacific region, which covers New Zealand. However, “the probable range could lie between eight and 11 cyclones”.

Just one cyclone is expected for northern New Zealand.

The outlook says there is a 55 percent chance that the season will see average or below-average events, and a 45 percent chance of an above-average number.

After two cyclones this year and tropical downpours which have caused major damage to the Gisborne-East Coast region, this is welcome news to residents and local authorities.

Everyone will be hoping the outlook is accurate, as recovery from this year’s weather is hugely expensive and will take some years.

Gisborne District Council’s latest listing of road damage throughout the district shows 18 roads are still closed and 20 have some form of restriction as a result

of earth movement and flood damage.