Nats likely need NZ First on side

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

Having opened the door to dealing with Winston Peters after the election, National leader Christopher Luxon went to great lengths to assure voters it would be a “last resort”. However, the calculus of forming “a strong and stable government” — another campaign mantra for Luxon, usually inserting “National and Act” — probably requires a deal with NZ First even if the preferred two-party coalition retains a thin majority after special votes are counted.

There is a feeling in National Party circles that special votes will not swing left as much as they traditionally do, because of Covid-era frustrations for Kiwis living overseas and an anticipated lower turnout from students, renters and other left-leaning people who tend to cast special votes.

That might be wishful thinking . . . but even if National and Act retain 61 of 121 seats as per the preliminary results (one more than normal as Te Pāti Māori gain an overhang seat from winning four electorates), then 62 of 122 after the Port Waikato byelection (which National’s Andrew Bayly should win easily), that is a Government just one MP going rogue away from losing its majority.

For the last term, Labour had two such MPs in Gaurav Sharma and Meka Whaitiri — as well as a few misbehaving ministers, where party leaders would have had extra worries over the consequences of their response if they had a wafer-thin majority.

A one-seat majority would also hand a lot of leverage to any MP, from Act or National, not wanting to toe the government line on an issue that matters to them.

The eight seats that NZ First would bring into a governing arrangement would remove those concerns . . . and have the added benefit of nixing a populist, nationalist and socially conservative voice from Opposition.

And whatever he might say on the campaign trail, Peters has been a stable hand in previous governments. He and his deputy Shane Jones are also experienced politicians.

The leadership of National, Act and NZ First have all talked about respecting the 567,000 voters who cast special votes, which will be tallied along with a recount and recheck of all ordinary votes cast, for final election results to be released on November 3.

That means coalition negotiations won’t really begin in earnest for another three weeks.

Talks before then will involve relationship building and allow the negotiating teams to understand each others’ policy priorities . . . there will be plenty of speculation but not much progress to report from parties intent on trying to build trust. Just how much leverage each party has to impose certain wishes won’t be settled until the official results are known.