Massive challenge ahead for Hipkins

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

Chippie is back but can he reinvigorate a party that has just gone through a major rejection from the voting public?

The decision of the Labour caucus to reinstate defeated Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is unsurprising, particularly as there are no obvious contenders for the position. But he now faces a massive challenge.

The defeat was the largest the party has suffered since 2014 and for nearly a century before that.

Labour has something of a breathing space as latest reports are that the coalition agreement between National, NZ First and ACT is now not likely to be completed this week.

But a Leader of the Opposition needs a target.

When Jacinda Ardern stood down in January Hipkins had less than a year to prepare for the coming election.

He decided to embark on what political commentators have described as a policy bonfire. Among those to go were a capital gains tax and more significantly a wealth tax that senior members of his caucus favoured.

His efforts were complicated when he lost three Cabinet members in the space of a few months. He could be excused for feeling he was let down by people he could have been expected to trust.

It allowed National to claim that this was an extremely inefficient government. That coupled with a strong mood for change and some lingering resentment about mask and vaccination mandates made his task impossible.

History shows, however, that there is a way back for defeated prime ministers.

The most recent example for Labour is Helen Clark who lost in 1996 and survived a coup attempt but came back in 1999 to win three consecutive terms and become the fifth longest serving PM in New Zealand’s history.

Bill English also became prime minister again after losing an election when John Key stood down.

Hipkins is regarded as a strong debater and will pose a threat for a comparatively inexperienced prime minister in the House.  Some feel he may be better suited to his new role because of his competitive nature, someone who in cricket terms is better at bowling than batting.

But even his strongest supporters will have to accept that it is going to be a long, hard struggle for the boy from the Hutt.

Although it bled votes, Labour is still the second largest party in New Zealand with an established base that, like National’s, will never leave it.

Eventually the tide will start to turn as it has historically always done in New Zealand. The question is whether that will happen soon enough for Chris Hipkins.