Iran’s ally now, not proxy?

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

While the Israeli-Hamas conflict is still the major concern in the Middle East, it is the Houthis terrorising shipping in the Red Sea which seems to be causing a lot of international concern.

It is likely even — according to informed comment — one of the two main factors likely to cause an escalation of fighting in the area, which could then in turn inflame the situation in the whole region.

Regarding the aims of the Houthis in trying to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, there is considerable opinion that even if their motives originally were to support Gaza, the “success” of their mission so far has seen them “punching above their weight” and they are now basking in the power of holding a significant part of both world trade and the Western sea powers at bay.

It may well be that Yemen will enjoy its new significance as a major “player” in the region. While still cooperating with Iran, they will have shed the status of being an Iranian proxy, and instead be seen as a powerful ally of Iran in their own right.

Unless Yemen backs off, they will create an intolerable situation for the peace-keeping forces arraigned against them, possibly to the point of a war. Such a war at this stage would be unlikely to suit Iran, because it would put the development of its nuclear programme at risk.

It is no secret internationally that a few years ago Iran’s nuclear facilities were bombed, putting its programme back years. It was neither confirmed nor denied that Israel was responsible for that bombing. If Iran started a military campaign against Western interests, their nuclear programme would be an almost inevitable target once again.

Of course, the best way out for both Iran and the West would be for Iran to congratulate the Houthis on their actions to this point, and then convince them it was time to withdraw after “a job well done”.

Unfortunately it is never really that easy — although we can but wait and hope.

Dennis Pennefather